Newmont Q2 2026: Earnings Slid With Gold, but $2.2 Billion Still Went Back to Shareholders

Newmont's second quarter of 2026 looks like a step down from Q1 — because it is. Net income came in at $2.2 billion, or $2.06 per share, versus $3.3 billion ($3.00) in Q1. Adjusted earnings were $2.10 a share, off from $2.90. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — a broad read on operating profitability) landed at $3.8 billion, down from $5.2 billion.

The twist: analysts expected $1.99 a share. Even in a down quarter, Newmont beat consensus by 11 cents. Revenue was the soft spot at $6.1 billion, roughly $190 million short. Free cash flow (the cash left after running the mines and funding the business) came in at $2.2 billion — below Q1's $3.1 billion, but the best second quarter in the company's history. The host calls the press release's "record second quarter" framing a bit of window dressing, yet concedes the results were, by and large, good.

### One driver, and it is the gold price

Newmont realized $4,414 an ounce in Q2, about 10% below the $4,900 it banked in Q1. That explains most of the sequential slide in earnings. The host reads the pullback as consolidation after a long run rather than a reason to worry.

### Costs are the real catch

Costs Applicable to Sales (the direct cost of the ounces sold) nearly doubled to $1,043 an ounce, and AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce, including the spending needed to keep mines going) jumped to $1,621 from $1,029 in Q1. Management blamed lower byproduct credits, higher Ghana royalties, softer volumes, and the oil price. On the call, management also said every $10-per-barrel move in oil is worth about $60 million on a full-year basis, with that pressure continuing into Q3. Even after the jump, AISC sits under the $1,680 full-year guide, so every ounce still throws off cash.

### Production finally held the line

After the pattern of quarter-after-quarter decline the host has documented in past Newmont updates, Q2 production of 1.3 million gold ounces was essentially flat with Q1 — about 10,000 ounces lower, which he calls a small victory. The quarter also produced 7 million ounces of silver and 17,000 tons of copper. Management said Q2 came in ahead of plan, with two operations pulling roughly 50,000 ounces forward out of the second half. The year is 49% complete and the company remains on track for 5.3 million ounces of guidance. Q3 should look like Q2; the real ramp is expected in Q4, as maintenance wraps up and a newer project reaches full run rate.

### The balance sheet got stronger while earnings got weaker

Newmont closed the quarter with $9 billion in cash and a $3.4 billion net cash position (more cash than debt), up from Q1. The dividend held at 26 cents a share. Buybacks ran $1.7 billion since the last call, with another $600 million-plus done in July and $4.3 billion left on the authorization. The share count is down more than 100 million shares — roughly 9% — since the program launched a little over two years ago. For a second straight quarter, the company handed back more than 80% of the free cash flow it generated. The host adds that the buyback math now supports lifting the dividend to 27 cents at the February review — an 8% raise.

### Projects moving

Red Chris in British Columbia received its block cave regulatory approvals, along with $500 million in support from the Canadian government — which the host finds odd for a company holding billions in cash. Another operation, idled by April's seismic event, was fully restarted in mid-June.

### The valuation case — with the host's own caveats

The host built his valuation model with AI and says plainly that he holds no licenses and none of it is financial advice. On his numbers, Newmont trades around 6.6 times 2026 EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to operating earnings — a debt-neutral yardstick for comparing miners), roughly 9.1 times EV to free cash flow, and close to 11 times earnings. Across the senior peer group he runs the same model against — Barrick, Agnico, Kinross, and Equinox — he calculates Newmont at about a 2% discount on EV/EBITDA, 12% on price-to-earnings, and 31% on EV-to-free-cash-flow. The discount survives his own haircut for jurisdiction risk in Ghana, PNG, and Argentina.

He adds two honest caveats. Newmont reported first, so peers were still trading on older, pre-cooling numbers when he ran the comparison. And Agnico, the market's favorite, sits near 11 times EBITDA and 20 times free cash flow — roughly double Newmont's multiples — which may say more about how peers are priced than how cheap Newmont is. The cleanest takeaway is the cash: a 10.5% free cash flow yield and a total shareholder yield (dividends plus buybacks) north of 7%, more than double the peer average on his model.

### The watch item sits outside the numbers

The unresolved standoff with Barrick over their Nevada gold joint venture — including a notice of default — is the risk the host would circle. Management said on the call it has engaged with Barrick over recent months to find mutually acceptable solutions to diverging legal, technical, and commercial views on the venture, and that it has remained "resolute in protecting the interests and rights of Newmont shareholders."

### The takeaway

The host's framing: Newmont was built for investors who want gold exposure without babysitting a junior explorer. On this quarter's evidence — a consensus beat, flat production, intact guidance, a stronger balance sheet, and more than $2 billion handed back — the video argues the company is still delivering on that mandate. It is off the highs, costs are creeping, and the quarter leaned on a gold price that has since cooled. But on his numbers it is cheaper than its peers, and it is paying shareholders to wait.