Newmont near its highs: why Mike Larson sees a bull flag, not a double top
On The KE Report, technical analyst Mike Larson argues Newmont's stall just under its all-time high looks like consolidation rather than a confirmed double top. He would turn constructive on confirmation: a push back above about 132 on higher volume after the stock holds support.
Investor angle
Larson's read on Newmont turns on process, not prediction: a double top cannot be confirmed until it fails, so the actionable path is to watch behavior at support. Holding the pullback after a rally that retraced only part of its gain is itself the bullish signal; a move above roughly 132 on higher volume is the confirmation trigger for continued upside. Investors get a cleaner risk picture from that level than from arguing about pattern names — if support breaks instead, the bearish interpretation takes over and the thesis is wrong in observable terms.
## The setup on Newmont
Newmont (NEM) closed out The KE Report's September 17 daily editorial with Mike Larson, editor-in-chief at MoneyShow, walking through the chart after the stock's run to a record. The host frames the tension directly: Newmont reached an all-time high just after the August rally in gold equities, but that peak sits barely above the high from earlier in the year — he cites 134.88 for the earlier high against 135.29 about four weeks ago, a gap of roughly 50 cents. That leaves the classic technician's question: is Newmont printing a double top, or simply digesting a advance?
## Why Larson discounts the double-top read
Larson's answer is that the label matters less than the price behavior. A double top, he notes, is something "you're only going to know in the fullness of time" — it is confirmed only after the breakdown actually happens. What he sees instead, if he strips the name and ticker off the screen, is a chart with nothing scary in it: the stock rallied back to its old levels, has consolidated for a few weeks since, and is holding on the pullback. To him that shape looks like a bull flag — a pause within an uptrend rather than a reversal.
For pure technicians who want confirmation before acting, he lays out a specific trigger: a push back above roughly 132 on higher volume, which would signal the rally is likely continuing to the upside. Absent that, the key observation is simpler and, in his words, extremely powerful: across Newmont and the gold stocks generally, prices rallied, gave back part of the gain, and are holding support.
## Why this chart gets outsized attention
The host explains why Newmont carries more weight than any single gold stock: it is the go-to institutional name for exposure to the gold space. It trades on the US exchange, it is the largest, and it is where big money looks first. That makes its chart something every technician trading the sector has on the radar — a bellwether for institutional appetite for gold equities, not just one company's story.
## The sector backdrop behind the call
Larson's Newmont view sits inside a broader technical read of the metals complex. Gold and the mining ETFs — he points to GLD and GDX as examples — broke out of a long consolidation after the blow-off high in January and February, rallied from early August, then retested key moving averages and gaps and held, reversing to the upside. The host adds that GDX held its 200-day moving average and its 50-day exponential moving average on the pullback. After such a strong August — the host notes bigger and mid-tier producers were up 30-50%, with GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ all back above key moving averages — a September cool-off fits the pattern. Larson remains bullish the space, arguing the market is rewarding hard assets over paper assets, with silver's mixed industrial and precious profile an additional consideration. His near-term discipline is the same as for Newmont: watch the next couple of weeks to see whether the reversal off support gains momentum.
## What to watch from here
- Whether the higher low made in the past week holds and the reversal gains momentum to the upside - A move back above about 132 on higher volume as the technician's confirmation that the rally continues - The alternative path: if support gives way, the double-top interpretation — two highs near 135 — gains weight
The takeaway from the video is a framework rather than a promise: pattern labels are only confirmed in hindsight, so investors watch whether support holds and whether volume confirms the next advance.
Generated by Pixys from the source video below. Not investment advice.
