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Gold Cooled Off, But Newmont Is Still Printing Cash | Q2 Earnings

The Deep Dive Aug 4, 2026

Summary

Newmont beat Q2 consensus even as net income and free cash flow fell from Q1 on a lower realized gold price.

AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) jumped to $1,621, still under the $1,680 full-year guide.

Production held flat at 1.3 million ounces, breaking the recent declines, with Q4 expected to ramp toward 5.3 million ounces of guidance.

Newmont trades near 6.6 times EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to pre-depreciation operating earnings) and screens 31% cheaper than senior peers on EV/free cash flow.

The unresolved Barrick joint-venture standoff over Nevada operations is the key non-financial risk, though the net cash balance sheet remains strong.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The hosts' AI-assisted model casts Agnico as the expensive 'market darling' of the senior peer group, at 11x EV/EBITDA and nearly 20x free cash flow as of the Q2 2026 comparison — roughly double what Newmont goes for.
  • It is one of the four peers (with Barrick, Kinross and Equinox) against which Newmont screens cheaper, leaving the hosts to ask whether the peers are expensive or Newmont is cheap.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • The hosts flag the unresolved Nevada Gold Mines standoff with Barrick — 'notice the default and all' — as the one thing worth watching that is not in Newmont's Q2 numbers.
  • Newmont management said on the call it has actively engaged Barrick over recent months to find mutually acceptable solutions to their diverging legal, technical and commercial views on the joint venture, while protecting Newmont shareholders' interests.

Key points on Newmont

  • Earnings slid from Q1's records as realized gold fell about 10% to $4,414 per ounce — yet adjusted EPS of $2.10 still beat the $1.99 consensus and free cash flow of $2.2 billion marked Newmont's best-ever second quarter, keeping the cash story intact.
  • Production finally held the line at 1.3 million ounces of gold (essentially flat with Q1) and came in ahead of plan, keeping the company on track for 5.3 million ounces of 2026 guidance, with the hosts pointing to Q4 as the quarter the production ramp shows up.
  • Costs are creeping: costs applicable to sales nearly doubled to $1,043 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs jumped to $1,621 from $1,029 in Q1 — blamed on lower byproduct credits, higher Ghana royalties, softer volumes and oil — though AISC still came in under the $1,680 full-year guide.
  • On the hosts' AI-assisted model, Newmont trades at about 6.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA, 9.1x EV/free cash flow and 11x earnings — discounts of roughly 2%, 12% and 31% to senior peers that survive even after haircuts for Ghana, PNG and Argentina jurisdiction risk.
  • The cash-return story stays the constant: more than 80% of free cash flow handed back for a second straight quarter, a 10.5% FCF yield, total shareholder yield above 7% (more than double the peer average), $9 billion in cash, and buyback math supporting a dividend raise to 27 cents at the February review.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The hosts' closing verdict, delivered in his wrap-up: Q2 was a good quarter overall — a consensus beat, production that held instead of slid, intact guidance, and another $2 billion-plus returned to shareholders.
  • He frames Newmont as built for the casual investor — index funds and ETF holders wanting gold exposure without babysitting a junior explorer — 'cheapish relative to peers' and 'paying you to wait'.

Jordan Lutz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway In the earnings walkthrough he fronts for the channel, the scoreboard shows net income down to $2.2 billion ($2.06 per share) from Q1's $3.3 billion, yet adjusted EPS of $2.10 beat the $1.99 consensus by 11 cents.
  • The hosts run an AI-assisted peer model with heavy caveats — Newmont at roughly 6.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA and a 31% EV/free-cash-flow discount to peers — calling it a 'total shot in the dark' and stressing it is not financial advice.

Peter Spina's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He is cited as highlighting that even with all-in sustaining costs jumping to $1,621 per ounce, Newmont is still 'making bank' on every ounce it produces.