Newmont Picks Up 38.5% of 4 Mile for $1.95B — Pays Back in ~2 Years at $4,360 Gold

Newmont just bought a high-grade gold asset at what looks like a fire-sale price. In a deal announced alongside Barrick's quarterly results, Newmont agreed to pay $1.95 billion in cash plus two early-stage development properties to acquire a 38.5% interest in Barrick's wholly owned 4 Mile project in Nevada. The Deep Dive host argues this works out to roughly 6.5 million attributable ounces at about $300 each, well below the $4 to $8 billion range Citigroup had penciled in for that stake, and a fraction of the $10 to $20 billion consensus value some sell-side analysts had put on the entire asset.

The deal also ends a multi-month standoff between the partners. Newmont had formally notified Barrick of what it characterized as the diversion of resources away from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture and toward 4 Mile, and then issued a notice of default under the JV agreement. Under the new agreement, the default notice is withdrawn, all outstanding disputes are settled, and Newmont has formally consented to Barrick's planned IPO of its North American gold assets, targeted for completion by the end of 2026, with a primary listing in New York and a secondary in Toronto.

## Why the price looks cheap

4 Mile is one of the highest-grade undeveloped gold discoveries of the decade, at least on paper. The current resource stands at 1.4 million ounces of indicated material at 11.8 grams per tonne, plus 6.4 million ounces inferred at 14.1 grams per tonne. A 2025 PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment — an early-stage scoping study, not a feasibility document) calls for production of 600,000 to 750,000 ounces a year for more than 25 years, with capital costs of $1.5 to $1.7 billion and all-in sustaining costs (AISC — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of $650 to $750 per ounce.

There are two big caveats. First, Barrick has not filed a 43-101 technical report for 4 Mile — the entire PEA exists as a slide deck. CIBC's Anita Sawney pressed CEO Mark Hill on this on the post-deal call, and he acknowledged the lack of a filed report was "an accurate, fair question" and that he did not have a good answer. Second, the current resource only supports about a decade of the PEA mine plan. Barrick plans to prove up the rest with 20 rigs and 370 kilometers of drilling through 2028, and has telegraphed that the resource could double. But there are no contingent payments tied to exploration upside in this deal — Newmont locked in its 38.5% of every ounce Barrick finds at today's price.

At the time of the video, gold was at $4,360 per ounce, well above the $2,500 used to build the PEA. Applying management's sensitivity — AISC rises about $100 for every $1,000 move in the gold price, including royalties — the running cost is closer to $835 to $935 per ounce. At the midpoints, 4 Mile throws off roughly $2.3 billion a year in operating margin, of which Newmont's 38.5% share is about $900 million. The $1.95 billion cash check pays itself back in just over two years, then keeps running for another 23.

## The other side of the consideration

Barrick's pitch, made by Hill on the post-deal call, is that the headline $1.95 billion understates the real value of the package. He put the total value at roughly $4 billion, with the extra coming from three sources: 61.5% of Newmont's Mike and Fiberline properties (about 6.4 million ounces by Hill's count); a settlement payment for historical disputes; and the value of Newmont's consent itself, which Hill framed as reducing friction costs for the planned IPO. The Deep Dive host points out that even taking the $4 billion figure at face value implies a 100% valuation for 4 Mile of about $10.4 billion — the absolute floor of Citi's consensus range — before stripping out the dispute settlement and IPO consent, neither of which is an ounce of gold in the ground.

Analysts pressed repeatedly for a clean breakdown. RBC's Josh Wolfson asked for one and was told no. Scotiabank's Tanya Jakisanis asked whether $2 billion was inside or on top of the $4 billion and was told it was $4 billion. UBS's Daniel Major asked the same thing a third time. TD Cowen's Stephen Green asked Hill to confirm the 6.4 million ounce figure; Hill said he would get back to him. Asked about Mike specifically, Hill said: "I haven't put a lot of value towards that."

## What it means for Newmont

The host's bottom line is that Newmont walked into a hostage negotiation. Barrick had publicly committed to a transaction — the IPO of its North American gold assets centered on Nevada Gold Mines — without first securing Newmont's consent. The Deep Dive argues the resulting discount was essentially a fee Barrick paid to get the IPO unblocked. From Newmont's perspective, that is the price of certainty: the default is gone, the litigation risk is gone, the IPO has a clear path to close, and the company is on the hook for less than a third of the capital bill at 4 Mile while owning 38.5% of the ounces.

The deal also gives Newmont an inside look at 4 Mile ahead of any future JV trigger. Hill confirmed in May that 4 Mile will eventually fold into Nevada Gold Mines, but suggested at the time the trigger was not until fees were filed around 2029. With the new agreement, that clock has clearly accelerated.