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Mike Larson - Fed Rate Hike Recap, the Technical Setup for Gold Miners

The KE Report Sep 17, 2026 23:59

Summary

The Fed's hawkish hike targets second-round inflation from stubbornly high oil prices that rate increases cannot directly produce away.

Long-end yields are rising across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, and Canada alike, signaling a global bond-market repricing rather than a US-only problem.

Energy's 47% year-to-date leadership with lagging utilities signals an offensive, hard-asset-leaning market, not one pricing a recession.

Gold and miners held key moving averages after a strong August rally; holding support after retracing half a gain is a powerful buy setup.

AI infrastructure spending has further to run despite bubble warnings, keeping copper, natural gas, and uranium demand supported into next year.

Key points on Newmont

  • The host notes Newmont hit an all-time high of 135.29 about four weeks ago, barely above the earlier-in-the-year high of 134.88, raising the double-top question.
  • Mike Larson argues the chart looks like a bull flag, not a confirmed double top: the stock rallied to old levels, consolidated a few weeks, and is holding on the pullback.
  • Larson says pure technicians should wait for a push back above about 132 on higher volume to confirm the rally continues.
  • The host calls Newmont the go-to institutional name for gold exposure on the US exchange — the largest, and where big money looks first.

Mike Larson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues gold and the miners have a promising setup after holding key moving averages, and he would jump back in with both feet if the reversal gains momentum.
  • Reads the Fed as sounding more hawkish after the hike, with markets pricing one to two more hikes and possibly two, three, or four into next year.
  • Contends rate hikes cannot produce oil or fix geopolitics — the Fed can only slow demand to blunt second-round energy inflation.
  • Points to energy leading sectors year to date with defensives lagging as a sign the market stays offensive and hard-asset leaning.
  • Sees the AI build-out as mid-inning rather than ninth-inning, with copper, natural gas, and uranium demand supported for now despite bubble risks.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Per Mike Larson, Chairman Warsh delivered a hawkish press conference focused on stubbornly elevated inflation after the much-anticipated hike.
  • Larson says Warsh essentially laid the groundwork for taking back accommodation — more like two, three, or possibly four hikes rather than one-and-done.
  • The transcript notes questions about Warsh's inflation-fighting chops helped drive long-term yields higher at the 10-year and 30-year.
  • Larson recalls a school of thought that Warsh would defer to President Trump and keep rates low, but says the real world intervened as oil and diesel fed into inflation.