Newmont Kicks Off Gold Miner Earnings Season With Low Expectations — and the Gold Price May Decide the Reaction
On The KE Report, Craig Hemke and the hosts expect Newmont's July 23 report to open gold miner earnings season on a weak note: lower gold output, rising costs, EPS of about $2.13 to $2.18 versus $2.90 in Q1, and revenue down nearly $1 billion sequentially. Hemke argues the gold price, not the print, will drive the stock's reaction.
Investor angle
Hemke's index-weight point: Newmont plus Agnico Eagle are more than 20% of GDX, so Thursday's print sets the sector's tone regardless of company quality. He expects strong sector results at roughly $4,400 gold to be sold into strength and sees Newmont as the tree hiding a forest of producers with lower costs and better management. The panel's counterpoint: miners are priced at last year's Q3-Q4 levels despite much higher metals prices, a valuation gap that matters if metals merely go sideways. Scoreboard for Thursday: output versus a lowered bar, any capital-return signals, and the gold price itself.
Newmont reports second-quarter results after the market close on Thursday, July 23, and on The KE Report's daily editorial the panel framed the print as the official start of gold miner earnings season. The hosts likened Newmont's role to Alcoa's in the broader market: it is the biggest and most closely followed gold producer, so its report sets the tone for everything that follows. Expectations for the quarter are low, and the discussion lands on a sharper point — the numbers themselves may matter less than where the gold price is trading that night. The report arrives at the end of a quiet week, ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and PCE inflation data.
## Why one stock moves the whole sector
Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, pointed to index arithmetic. By his count, Newmont is about 10.9% of GDX (the largest gold-miner ETF) and Agnico Eagle, which reports on July 29, is about 9.9%. Together the two stocks are more than 20% of the fund, so their results will color how the market reads every other miner's quarter.
That weight cuts both ways. Because so many analysts cover Newmont, Hemke said, it has that many more ways to disappoint, and it remains the default name: call a broker for a gold miner, and Newmont is the one the firm carries. In his view, if Newmont does not go up, it weighs on every other gold stock.
## What the market already expects
The hosts walked through the consensus picture: gold output is projected to be lower, and some analysts expect all-in sustaining costs (AISC — what it really costs to produce an ounce) to rise significantly. That lands on a low base, because Newmont's Q1 AISC was just under $3,000 per ounce, which the hosts called very low at these gold prices. Earnings per share are expected near $2.13 to $2.18, down from $2.90 in Q1, and revenue is expected to fall by almost a billion dollars from the first quarter. "They're already telling us Q2 is going to be bad," one host said.
Asked whether Newmont could change the story — acquiring projects, repaying capital to shareholders, becoming an income stock, or continuing buybacks — Hemke chuckled. His criticism of the company's "bloated management" is, he said, well documented, and he has learned not to look for anything too positive from the stock. He expects better-received reports from other miners, but he is openly pessimistic about Newmont's own print.
## The forest behind the Newmont tree
Both hosts argued Newmont gets more attention than it deserves. The gold sector holds roughly ten majors, about two dozen mid-tiers, and about three dozen smaller producers. With second-quarter averages around $4,300 gold and $73 silver, many of those companies — some with lower cost structures — "printed a lot of money," in the hosts' words. Hemke agreed the market is back to a stock picker's environment: last year everything rose together, but from here he believes research into margins, prospects, and management will beat buying a blanket ETF or mutual fund.
## The gold price may decide the reaction
The most pointed claim of the discussion is that even that analysis may be noise. One host argued investors follow the gold price, not the earnings: if gold rallies toward $4,500 by Thursday night and looks to have found a floor, the market will react positively no matter what Newmont reports. Hemke agreed. By his notes, gold and silver sit where they did in early-to-mid November last year — and so do GDX and SILJ (the junior gold miner ETF). The shares, in his telling, mainly reflect metals-driven sentiment.
A third panelist offered the valuation counter: gold companies are priced where they were in the third and fourth quarters of last year, when average metals prices were much lower and margins thinner. On that measure they are cheaper today, even if metals go sideways. Hemke accepted both points but sided with sentiment: the renewed conflict upset rate expectations and lifted energy costs, driving the washout in the shares. In his view, investors return to the sector only after metal prices turn, and the multiples expand from there.
He also flagged how good news may trade. With gold around $4,400 and silver near $70, he expects most miners to beat expectations, but he suspects traders will sell into the strength — a stock opening 3% higher on strong numbers and finishing the day up 1%.
## What to watch on Thursday
The panel's scoreboard for Newmont's report: whether output and costs meet the lowered bar described on the show, whether management signals anything on capital returns, and — most important by the panel's lights — where the gold price is trading when the numbers land. Hemke stays bullish on gold miners long term, but he expects Newmont's quarter to be read through sentiment first and fundamentals second.
Generated by Pixys from the source video below. Not investment advice.
