Willem Middelkoop: The Next Financial Crisis, 'Perfect Storm' For Commodities & Mining Discoveries

Palisades Gold Radio Aug 27, 2026

Summary

Weimar lite is already underway as foreign holders have dropped below 30% of US Treasuries and the Fed has absorbed $330B in a year.

Central banks have bought around 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for five straight years -- about a third of global mine output.

Gold is being reintroduced into the monetary system without any formal conference, as central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries.

Gold producers print record free cash flow at PE ratios of 10-11, roughly a tenth of Magnificent Seven valuations.

Discovery investors hold at least 1% stakes in tier-one deposits, scaling back after runs but never selling through production.

The guest counts Artemis Gold as one of his fund's successful 'starting producer' bets, grouped with G Mining and Skeena as cases of 100-200% re-rates as new mines come online.
Artemis Gold is cited as a 'did well' example in his side pocket of producers transitioning into production.

The guest argues Barrick trades at a dirt-cheap P/E of around 10-11, roughly 10x lower than the average Magnificent Seven tech stock he benchmarks against.
He frames Barrick (with Newmont) as the asset-rich, defensive counterweight to overvalued tech, noting gold miners historically commanded a P/E of 25.

The guest cites Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper discovery in Mongolia as a textbook world-class find whose value compounded over decades, crediting Robert Friedland's willingness to hold the position through the long development cycle.

The guest uses Kinross as a cautionary tale: Kinross paid $1 billion for the Aurelian/Fruta del Norte deposit in 2008, sat on it, then sold it to the Lundin family for $250 million - Lundin Gold later built the mine at a ~$25 billion valuation.
He frames the episode as a lesson in why discovery investors must hold their stake all the way to production rather than selling at takeover.

The guest cites Lundin Gold as the dramatic payoff from his early Aurelian Resources investment: he bought 10,000 shares at 30 cents, Aurelian was valued at ~$20 million at discovery, and the resulting Lundin Gold later traded at a(~$20 billion valuation.
He holds Lundin Gold up as the case study for why sticking with Tier 1 discoveries through production is the only way to capture the full compounding upside.

The guest argues Newmont (with Barrick) trades at a dirt-cheap P/E of around 10-11, roughly 10x lower than the average Magnificent Seven tech stock.
He frames Newmont as an asset-rich, defensive equity that screens cheap relative to its free cash flow, which he describes as 'off the charts' and exceeding that of the Mag-7.

The guest calls Skeena a 'great example' in his starting-producer basket, a category he expects to see 100-200% re-rates as new mines come online.

The guest highlights Hercules Metals as a world-class copper discovery in Idaho where his fund owns over 4% and treats as a core 'stick-with-it' position with the goal of keeping at least 1% through production.
He compares the system in scale and potential to an Aurelian-type discovery, calling it a brand-new copper district.
The fund stepped in as a quasi-activist when the original young geologist CEO publicly acknowledged he was not suited to lead; the fund helped install a new chairman and a new CEO team.
Hercules is hold up as the proof point for his 'discovery investing' model - early, concentrated, long-duration ownership of Tier 1 finds.

The guest flags Sitka Gold as an important gold discovery in the Yukon where his fund owns over 4%, and says he will trim back to a 1% core position once it runs further.
Sitka is grouped with Hercules, Talon, and NexGen as one of the fund's largest discovery stakes that he intends to hold through production.

Top takeaway The guest credits Robert Friedland as the model for how to invest in world-class mining discoveries - holding positions across decades as the asset compounds, citing Oyu Tolgoi and Kamoa-Kakula as proof.

Top takeaway Middelkoop argues a generational commodity bull market has begun that could last to 2050, driven by structural supply shortages in copper, uranium, gold, and silver that prices alone cannot solve.
He frames the moment as the live unfolding of his 'Big Reset' thesis: a multi-decade unwinding of US dollar supremacy triggered by the collapse of the petrodollar arrangement, surging global debt, and foreign buyers stepping away from Us Treasuries.
He distinguishes 'Weimar light' - in which the US Fed and proxies now own roughly 70% of Treasuries, with ~$330B of new buying in the last 12 months - from outright Weimar hyperinflation, arguing the US still holds the 'gold card' option of revaluing its 8,000 tons of official gold.
He says his fund runs roughly 50-60% in new discoveries, 30-40% in producing miners, plus a side pocket of starting producers (Skeena, Artemis Gold, G Mining), and reports the fund was up over 70% last year and over 20% YTD as of the late-August 2026 recording.
He argues a new financial crisis could begin in the next several quarters, and when it does central banks will reach for the gold card and revalue gold sharply higher.

Top takeaway The guest highlights Ray Dalio's recent call to sell bonds and buy gold and Bitcoin as evidence that mainstream institutional investors are starting to agree with the gold-bug thesis.
He uses Dalio - whom he calls reasonable and not a gold bug - alongside Citadel doubling its gold position and Deutsche Bank's gold re-monetization report as proof the 'flow of funds' is shifting toward hard assets.