Skip to main content

Weekend Show - Is the Market Topping? Gold’s Next Move? Is Oil About To Pop Higher?

The KE Report Sep 19, 2026 1:18:57

Summary

Two-thirds of days closing below their open point to institutional selling; weekly S&P 500 closes under 746.5 would target the low 700s.

The Iran conflict and tightening inventories keep oil elevated, and the guest expects energy equities to keep outperforming with WTI upside toward 107.

OECD days of inventory (days of demand global stocks cover) sit at 82, near 2008 lows, so oil price forecasts may still move higher.

Into winter, favor low-debt, hedged, liquids-rich natural gas producers, while energy royalty companies pay 6%-plus monthly dividends without operating risk.

Avoid long bonds as yields target 5.6%; short-term Treasury bills via TreasuryDirect offer safety, and gold support sits near GLD 394 then 356.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest cites Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole statement as one of three late-August catalysts that failed to push markets to new highs, suggesting investors read it unfavorably.
  • With the Fed transition, the market is looking to Warsh for clarity on whether the expected 25 basis point September 2026 hike is a one-off or part of a series through mid-2027.

Josef Schachter's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Josef Schachter argues oil is unlikely to back off because the Iran and Houthi conflict continues, with Iran effectively constraining the Bab el-Mandeb strait and pushing WTI to as high as $106.75 intraday, around $102.50 at recording, and he expects oil to stay above $100 through the November 3 election.
  • He flags global OECD days-of-inventory at 82 days, down from 90 before the war, and warns that a breach below 80 days, last seen in Q2 2008 when oil ran from $90 to $147, would warrant more aggressive price forecasts; Schachter's 2027 WTI estimate is $90 versus $80 used for 2026.
  • Schachter notes US crude exports rose to 4.8 million barrels a day and that the SPR fell another 400,000 barrels to 285 million, down from 406 million a year earlier, and he argues Venezuela's heavy crude is the wrong grade for refilling the SPR without major infrastructure investment.
  • On natural gas, Schachter sees AECO at $1.40 in mid-September 2026 but a roughly $2.50 winter average and potentially $3-$4 long-term pricing if approved LNG projects add 6 Bcf a day to Canadian demand.
  • He is hosting the Catch the Energy Conference on October 17, 2026 in Calgary, with 43 companies presenting, the most in the event's history.

Rick Bensignor's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Rick Bensignor argues a near-term market top is already in: the QQQ has gone 15 weeks without a new all-time high and the S&P 5 weeks, and he lists three late-August catalysts, Nvidia earnings, Marvell earnings down more than 10% post-print, and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, that all failed to push markets higher.
  • He points to institutional selling, noting roughly two-thirds of sessions since the August 4 upside breakout have closed below the open, and warns that two Friday closes under 746.5 on the SPY would target the summer low near 716 and potentially the upper 690s.
  • On yields, he maintains his call for the US 10-year never to revisit 4% this cycle, with a primary target of 5.6%, a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1981-2020 bond bull, and a stretch case of 6.07%, recommending short-term T-bills at roughly 5% rather than locking in long duration.
  • On oil, Bensignor says he is not selling energy exposure and sees WTI upside targets near 107 followed by 123, citing the ongoing Iran conflict and XLE's status as a historically underperforming sector with room to run.
  • On metals and copper, he flags GLD support near 394 with downside risk to 356 if it fails, sees SLV supported at about 56.5 with a summer-low risk at 49, and argues copper is a sell on rallies after failing at the 680-695 multi-top band and breaking its March uptrend.

Nathan Ritchie's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Nathan Ritchie says Q2 results across the names he covers were strong and he expects Q3 and Q4 to be even more robust, with oil in the $90s to $100s driving a 'non-one-to-one,' exponential cash flow multiplier for oil-weighted producers.
  • He highlights Paramount Resources as his top recent pick, a 50/50 oil-liquids and gas Montney producer targeting growth from about 120 mboe/d today to over 180 mboe/d by 2028, and points to royalty companies and dividend payers as offering sustainable yields above 6%.
  • On capital allocation, Ritchie notes companies are revising 2026 CapEx and drilling programs higher while still buying back stock, and highlights Strathcona's plan to grow from 120,000 barrels a day to 200,000 barrels a day by the end of 2030.
  • In oilfield services he sees selective opportunity: CES and Total Energy Services have already had big runs, while TriCan, at about $6.38 versus a $5.19-$8.40 52-week range with no debt, is flagged as set up for a Q3 rebound after a weather-impacted Q2.
  • On gas, Ritchie favors low-debt producers with diversified markets and financial hedges such as $3 collars, with Peyto introduced in spring 2026 as a 27-year track-record, low-cost gas name alongside his Paramount thesis.