Nathan Ritchie

Weekend Show - Is the Market Topping? Gold’s Next Move? Is Oil About To Pop Higher?

• Top takeaway Nathan Ritchie says Q2 results across the names he covers were strong and he expects Q3 and Q4 to be even more robust, with oil in the $90s to $100s driving a 'non-one-to-one,' exponential cash flow multiplier for oil-weighted producers.
• He highlights Paramount Resources as his top recent pick, a 50/50 oil-liquids and gas Montney producer targeting growth from about 120 mboe/d today to over 180 mboe/d by 2028, and points to royalty companies and dividend payers as offering sustainable yields above 6%.
• On capital allocation, Ritchie notes companies are revising 2026 CapEx and drilling programs higher while still buying back stock, and highlights Strathcona's plan to grow from 120,000 barrels a day to 200,000 barrels a day by the end of 2030.
• In oilfield services he sees selective opportunity: CES and Total Energy Services have already had big runs, while TriCan, at about $6.38 versus a $5.19-$8.40 52-week range with no debt, is flagged as set up for a Q3 rebound after a weather-impacted Q2.
• On gas, Ritchie favors low-debt producers with diversified markets and financial hedges such as $3 collars, with Peyto introduced in spring 2026 as a 27-year track-record, low-cost gas name alongside his Paramount thesis.

Two-thirds of days closing below their open point to institutional selling; weekly S&P 500 closes under 746.5 would target the low 700s. The Iran conflict and tightening inventories keep oil elevated, and the guest expects energy equities to keep outperforming with WTI upside toward 107. OECD days of inventory (days of demand global stocks cover) sit at 82, near 2008 lows, so oil price forecasts may still move higher. Into winter, favor low-debt, hedged, liquids-rich natural gas producers, while energy royalty companies pay 6%-plus monthly dividends without operating risk. Avoid long bonds as yields target 5.6%; short-term Treasury bills via TreasuryDirect offer safety, and gold support sits near GLD 394 then 356.

Brien Lundin & Josef Schachter - Navigating the Precious Metals Correction & Energy Sector Trends

• Top takeaway Models the companies he covers on $80 WTI and $2.50 AECO over the next 12 months, noting covered producers realize above-AECO prices by reaching Dawn, Henry Hub, California and Gulf Coast markets.
• Expects prolonged supply disruption around Iran — which he calls an escalation trap that is hard to win — while end-user oil demand stays strong even as China imports less.
• Prefers the oilier names, in contrast to Josef Schachter's longer-term gas stance, and points to smaller names trading at three to four times cash flow, including a Thailand-focused producer selling at a premium to the Dubai benchmark.
• Flags Strathcona as a growth name with very large reserves, just weeks past first steam at one of its SAGD projects.
• Sees the ARC-to-Shell deal as the M&A catalyst: applying that cashflow multiple implies about $90 for Tourmaline versus the $60s, with Canadian inventory drawing interest from US private equity, European majors and Middle East sovereign wealth funds.

Lundin argues the precious-metals correction reflects two temporary factors, Fed hawkishness and the Iran war, while debt and deficits keep the bull market intact. Lundin expects majors producing record free cash to buy juniors after a re-rating, an opportunity he calls lower risk at this point. For development projects, Lundin uses a conservative $150-$200 per ounce in the ground as a takeover value benchmark. Schachter forecasts WTI averaging $80 this year and $90 next on winter demand and Strategic Petroleum Reserve restocking, with shale breakevens flooring prices near $65. Nathan Ritchie models producers at $80 oil and $2.50 gas in Alberta, favoring names trading near three to four times cashflow.