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THESE Critical Metals Set to FLY as Supply Squeeze Accelerates: Daniel Major

Commodity Culture Aug 14, 2026

Summary

Eastport's CEO argues a long-term critical-minerals bull market is under way, driven by US-China bifurcation and rising electrification demand.

Copper demand could reach 35 million tonnes by 2040 versus mine supply expected to peak near 25 million tonnes in 2030, leaving a structural deficit.

China controls 80 to 90 percent of rare-earth processing and is using export tariffs to bifurcate supply chains and lift non-China prices.

Uranium demand could reach 320 million pounds by 2040 against mine supply stuck near 200 million, supporting long-term contracts near 96 dollars a pound.

Eastport is advancing six critical-minerals projects in Botswana, led by copper at Matsutama, rare earths at Semarula, and nickel-copper at Selebi East.

Daniel Major's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Major frames critical minerals as a long-term structural story, not a near-term trade — argues supply chains are bifurcating as China uses export quotas and tariffs to control who buys refined rare earths (he cites Japan's critical metals exports from China being cut 50%).
  • On copper, he sees a structural deficit: current demand ~28M tons vs mine supply ~22M (recycling filling the gap), demand heading to ~35M by 2040 while supply on existing/planned projects peaks at ~25M around 2030.
  • On rare earths, he emphasizes heavy rare earths (terbium, dysprosium) as the investor focus, since most new pipeline is light rare earths and rare earth prices outside China are running 3–5x domestic levels.
  • On uranium, he argues the bull case remains intact — spot at ~$86/lb vs ~$18 at the November 2016 bottom, term contracts near ~$96, demand projected to grow from ~180M lbs to ~320M lbs while supply struggles to get past ~200M lbs without new projects.
  • Just joined Eastport ~1.5 months ago after 13 years in uranium; chose the company because all six Botswana projects link to electricity demand and the jurisdiction is top-tier (Fraser Institute #7 globally, #1 in Africa, per the speaker).

Jesse Day's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Day (host of Commodity Culture) frames the interview around a supply-squeeze thesis, opening by arguing now is the moment to bring critical mineral supply online outside China given geopolitical fragmentation and supply-chain bifurcation.
  • States his own view that 'the bull case for uranium is getting stronger than ever,' positioning uranium equities as still early in the cycle and echoing Rick Rule that 'the share of money is ahead of us.'