Mining Stock Mailbag: Hycroft, Vizsla, K92, Goliath & More | Oct. 5-9, 2026

The Deep Dive Oct 9, 2026 20:30

Summary

Hycroft's large Nevada gold-silver resource comes with a $2.4 billion mill bill against a $2 billion market cap and heavy dilution.

1911 Gold is hitting True North restart milestones for about CAD 59 million in initial capital, but is restarting without a feasibility study.

Vizsla Silver's Panucco project is fully funded with permitting progressing, but January's abduction that killed nine workers is the real overhang.

K92 Mining's fully funded expansion targets 400,000 ounces, but 2026 guidance of 190,000 to 225,000 means the ramp is still a promise.

The host argues US deficits and interest costs make eventual Fed stimulus inevitable, so now is the time to accumulate quality juniors.

The host cites Barrick's Porgera mine in Papua New Guinea, idle for nearly four years after the government refused to renew its lease, as the cautionary tale for K92's jurisdiction risk.

The host, looking at Golconda for the first time, likes that it has two mines in actual cashflow, with Galaxy in South Africa as the cash engine and the company debt-free since Q1.
It generated $8.7 million of operating cashflow in the first half, which is funding the Summit restart in New Mexico with no dilution; first ore at Summit came in July.
CEO Ravi Sud wants to spin Summit out as a separately listed US gold-silver producer, and the host is watching for concentrate at Summit and a clean spin-out.
The risks are size and grade: Galaxy produced about 7,300 ounces in the first half, well short of the 18,000-ounce pace Ravi Sud is pointing to this year, and it is a low-grade operation selling a refractory concentrate, so not every ounce produced is paid for.
With the stock up more than 900% in three years as of October 2026, the host says a lot of good news is already priced in, though he is drawn to a team that knows how to generate cashflow and redeploy it.

The host's bottom line: K92 is not a bad stock but is fairly valued, and he does not see enough value for the level of Papua New Guinea jurisdiction risk.
The growth story is real and self-funded: the stage 3 plant is built, a record $340 million sits in the bank, both expansions are fully funded, stage 3 targets a 300,000-ounce run rate and stage 4 pushes past 400,000 ounces with commissioning late next year.
The ramp is still a promise, not a result: 2026 guidance is 190,000 to 225,000 ounces, and head grade dropped from about 10 g/t in Q1 to under 7 in Q2.
On the host's back-of-napkin math it should trade around $5 billion US on roughly 200,000 ounces a year, rising toward $10 billion US at 400,000 ounces, versus just under $5 billion CAD as of the episode.
He flags the Papua New Guinea jurisdiction risk by pointing to Barrick's Porgera mine, which sat idle nearly four years after the government refused to renew its lease.

The host says CEO Sean Heinrichs is hitting milestones restart stories rarely do: the True North shaft and 26 level are dewatered, the ball mill is commissioned, contract miners are on site and test mining starts this fall.
Because the mill and permits already exist, the PEA's initial capital is only about CAD 59 million, which the host calls tiny for a 58,000-ounce-a-year mine.
He cautions the company is heading toward a restart without a feasibility study, exactly how restarts go sideways, and that test mining is not commercial production, noting previous operator San Gold went broke running the mine without enough drilling.
The stock slid from about $1 in April to the mid-70s even with all that progress, though he notes the gold price itself fell from roughly $4,700 to about $4,100 over the same period.
He wants the pre-feasibility study and global resource update this half and the second Oremet loan tranche locked in before its December 4 deadline, and admits he is angry at himself for not buying at 10 cents.

The host presents a two-sided case: 16 million ounces of gold and 562 million ounces of silver measured and indicated in Nevada with $220 million in cash and zero debt, but a planned $2.4 billion pressure-oxidation mill against a market cap of about $2 billion, and he questions who funds that and at what dilution.
Eric Sprott effectively controls the story after AMC sold most of its 2022 stake to him: he owns roughly 42% and can block any takeover.
September's vortex hole ran 30 meters of 780 g/t silver, which the host calls real width, though he cautions the bulk of the ounces grade about a third of a gram of gold and the cheap heap-leach route already failed in 2021.
He flags dilution and governance concerns: the share count has roughly tripled in a year, management booked about $34 million in awards including a bonus for raising money, and a new Delaware suit alleges control went to Sprott on the cheap.
What he wants to see: a standalone high-grade underground silver resource, a credible restart plan or real funding partner, and results from the Deep Brimstone holes as restart drilling wraps up this quarter.

The host leads with the security crisis: in January, 10 Vizsla workers were abducted near the Panuco project in Sinaloa, nine were found dead and one is still missing, and site work has stopped since.
The asset itself has not changed: the feasibility study calls for over 17 million silver-equivalent ounces a year and the company holds roughly $400 million in cash, so in his view this is not a funding story.
Permitting is the bright spot: Vizsla hired a former Mexican mining official to push the MIA through and says the process does not depend on site access; the host wants the MIA in hand and a construction decision.
He notes Vizsla has gone quiet, which makes investors nervous, and the victims' families now publicly accuse the company of abandoning them and ignoring earlier security warnings — allegations, but he calls the legal overhang real.
He says out loud that he expects the eventual security fix is an arrangement with the cartel that never gets announced or shows up in the financials, and he wants proof crews can safely get back to work.

Top takeaway The host's macro thesis: counting off-balance-sheet net-present-value liabilities, US deficits run about 12% of GDP and interest expense about 23% of tax receipts, so he expects the Fed to be forced into action within the next 12 months, likely before the 10-year yield reaches 6%.
He argues politicians will always choose inflating the debt away over austerity, and that when a large $3-5 trillion bond-buying print comes, gold runs to $10,000 — a target he says sounds less extreme now that gold has already traded at the $5,600 level.
On positioning, his advice as of October 2026 is to use the current market to hunt for value and set up for the next run, saying the most money is made by doing smart things when the market pulls back.
Stock by stock he stays risk-disciplined: constructive but dilution-wary on Hycroft, supportive of 1911 Gold's milestone-driven restart, unwilling to pay for K92 at fair value given Papua New Guinea risk, and drawn to cash-generating small producers like Golconda.
He is transparent about conflicts, disclosing on air that Goliath sponsored his Beaver Creek trip and that he owns millions of Granada shares, a show advertiser whose CEO he counts as a friend.