Skip to main content

Live Q&A with Rick Rule, Rudi Fronk, and Steve Barton

Rule Investment Media May 22, 2026

Summary

Seabridge's KSM is now the world's largest undeveloped gold project by reserves and resources, and second-largest for copper.

Fronk argues capital efficiency is the real draw: at current metal prices after-tax NPV reaches $35 billion against a $6.4 billion build.

Over $1 billion of roads, camps and grid tie-in is already built, so an incoming partner inherits spending rather than starting from zero.

The remaining risk is a tunnel dispute with Tudor; both sides want a negotiated fix because neither wants a court trial.

Nearly half of $750 million in on-site construction spending already flows to First Nations companies under impact benefit agreements.

Key points on Newmont

  • Fronk frames KSM against its neighbour Newmont's Bruce Jack, calling Bruce Jack the higher-grade of the two projects while Seabridge has not been able to tie its own scattered high-grade intercepts, including 2 metres at 1,551 g/t at Self Ridge, into a coherent zone.
  • Rule recalls that when his friend ran Bruce Jack he said hiring workers who already lived in the region was an advantage rather than the burden of flying staff in from the south; Fronk says he has not kept up with the operation since.

Key points on Seabridge Gold

  • Fronk says Seabridge has narrowed potential joint venture partners for KSM to a single preferred candidate and is aligning the final bankable feasibility design with that company first, so the partner does not later reject the study's design choices.
  • KSM is described as the largest undeveloped gold project in the world by reserves and resources and the second-largest undeveloped copper project if gold is set aside; Seabridge has spent over C$1 billion since 2006, received environmental approval in 2014 and started on-site construction, with a 33-year initial mine life of just over 1 million ounces of gold a year and life-of-mine cost of production under $500 per ounce after by-product credits.
  • At $4,400 gold Fronk puts KSM's after-tax NPV above US$35 billion, against roughly US$8 billion at the 2022 pre-feasibility prices of $1,740 gold and $3.53 copper; payback stays near two years even if capital cost rises to $8 billion, and the first five years of operations generate about US$35 billion of combined EBITDA.
  • The Courageous Lake spin-out, to be named Valor Gold, was about 99.9% approved by shareholders as of the May 2026 discussion and still needs court sign-off before shares are expected in accounts around June 3, 2026; Fronk says its NPV has moved from about $0.5 billion in a 2024 study at $1,850 gold to north of $3 billion, which he frames as $5 to $10 per Seabridge share if the market picks it up.
  • The main open risks are permitting and balance sheet: the M2-4-5 amendment needed for the full haulage tunnel is held up pending the Tudor dispute, a neighbouring First Nation of roughly 50 band members has a judicial review pending over KSM's substantially started designation with a fallback application ready on spend that has risen from $440 million to about $700 million, and holding costs run near C$40 million a year against roughly $130 million in treasury.

Key points on Skeena Resources

  • Skeena is said to now own the old Snip underground mine, which the company hopes to use as mill feed for another project described as advancing.

Key points on Tudor Gold

  • Tudor's objections to the roughly 22 km haulage tunnel, about 12.5 km of which crosses Tudor's ground, are holding up the M2-4-5 permit amendment Seabridge needs, and the statutory decision-maker wants the dispute settled before granting it.
  • Tudor sued the province in BC Supreme Court claiming it lacked authority to grant Seabridge's tunnel rights; the province's response says those approvals were in place well before Tudor arrived in 2016, that Tudor failed its own due diligence, and that the claim is time-barred under Canada's two-year Limitations Act.
  • Fronk's stated route out is a negotiated tunnel realignment rather than a payout: Seabridge can flex the tunnel around Tudor's pit shell but cannot commit until Tudor publishes a mine plan, and he says a PEA-level plan would be enough to start negotiating.
  • On a takeover he argues Tudor's ore is largely refractory and does not fit Seabridge's flowsheet, so routing material through the tunnel would need a plant redesign plus a major environmental assessment amendment for roasting or oxidation.

Key points on Franco-Nevada Corp

  • Rule cites Pierre Lassonde's observation that after more than 40 years of production in northern Nevada, Franco-Nevada holds more ounces today than it bought 42 years ago, used to argue that NPV math understates long-life reserves.

Key points on Nations Royalty Corp

  • Fronk says Nations Royalty acquired the Nisga'a Nation's net profits interest in KSM under Seabridge's impact benefit agreement and has since sold that interest on, describing the company as now one of Seabridge's bigger supporters of the project.
  • Nations Royalty is taking part in the Natural Resources Investment Symposium, where attendees can put questions to it alongside Seabridge and hear the Taltan and Nisga'a nations' own view of the project.

Rick Rule's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Rule anchors the discussion in capital efficiency rather than headline NPV, pressing Fronk on NPV relative to upfront capital and citing Jonathan Goodman's classroom rule that a project should show an NPV of at least twice its upfront price.
  • He argues NPV understates long life reserves because everything past roughly year 10 to 15 discounts to zero, and points to KSM's 33-year permitted plan against 15 billion tons of economic resource as the reason a multi-generational asset is the strongest argument for a joint venture.
  • He lays out why the joint venture has taken so long: big company skepticism while permitting was unresolved through 2011 to 2013, an opening after the 2014 approval, the 2015 gold fall from about $1,900 to $1,050 that froze dealmaking, and then COVID closing off site access for due diligence.
  • He cites Pierre Lassonde's point that Franco-Nevada holds more ounces today, more than 40 years into Nevada production, than it bought 42 years ago, as a working example of reserve growth outrunning depletion.

Steve Barton's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Barton tests the capital question head on, asking whether the roughly $6.5 billion build is right and whether a smaller, quicker payback version of the project is possible; Fronk answers that lower grade bulk throughput is what makes KSM work and that the tailings facility, tunnels and water storage dam must all be in place before first production.
  • He also asks Seabridge to put a value on its non-KSM assets and to explain why it has not simply bought Tudor, and he solicits audience questions throughout the session.