Highland Copper: U.S. Copper Production in 2029 | Barry O’Shea and Jimmy Connor

Jimmy Connor Jun 18, 2026 20:15

Summary

Copperwood is a fully permitted, near-dated US copper project: 3.7B pounds defined, $400M capex, and a 2029 production target.

AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it truly costs to produce) sits at $250-275/lb; annual output of 30,000 tons addresses 5-10% of the US shortfall.

NPV scales steeply with copper: $170M at $4/lb, $507M at $5/lb, and $850M at $6/lb, the guest argues.

Federal capital is central: a $250M US Export-Import Bank LOI plus grant visibility could fund up to 75% of capex; equity need is ~$75M.

An updated feasibility study at near-$5 copper is due early 2027; construction is targeted for 2027-2028 with first production H2 2029.

The guest notes that Highland Copper board member John Cherry recently converted a US Export-Import Bank loan to a binding debt product worth nearly $2 to $3 billion at Perpetua Resources.

Top takeaway The host frames the discussion around near-term US copper production needs (H2 2029 best-case target), notes Highland Copper trades at a discount to its peers, and emphasizes upcoming catalysts including grant visibility, an integrated mine plan, and an updated feasibility study in early 2027.

Top takeaway The guest argues Highland Copper's Copperwood is one of the rare fully permitted, advanced-stage US copper projects positioned to address near-term domestic supply shortfalls, with construction targeted for 2027 to early 2028 and best-case production by H2 2029.
The guest emphasizes strong federal backing — a $250 million letter of interest from the US Export-Import Bank covering roughly 60% of the $400 million capex, plus White House recognition alongside other key US copper producers — with a target of 75% federal and state funding.
The guest projects meaningful NPV leverage to copper prices: roughly $170 million at $4/lb, $507 million at $5/lb, $850 million at $6/lb, and over $1 billion at spot prices as of mid-2026, supported by 30,000 tons of annual production at a $2 per pound cash cost.
The guest attributes the company's discount-to-comps valuation to capital flowing to unloved sectors, expressing confidence in re-rating as the team demonstrates financing capacity and execution through recent key hires — Peter Hemstad (ex-Capstone Copper founding executive) as CFO and Trace Arlo (ex-Rio Tinto Resolution Copper execution director) as project director.
The guest stresses a cleaned-up balance sheet with $22 million in treasury and all debt eliminated via a non-core asset sale, supported by long-term patient shareholders Orion Mine Finance (28%) and Condair (roughly 20%) to carry the company through development and into production.