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Free Virtual Silver Conference Replay

Jimmy Connor Feb 14, 2026 3:05:54

Summary

Silver's five-year supply deficit and rising industrial demand anchor the bull case speakers make despite a 30% one-day price crash.

Sprott managers call the selloff a buying opportunity: average in slowly, judge explorers on deposit size, producers on cash flow.

Dolly Varden's merger with Contango pairs high-grade BC silver with an Alaska gold miner's cash flow and permitting expertise.

AbraSilver and Aya are advancing toward bigger resources and record output, while Skeena is fully permitted and targets 2027 cash flow.

Washington's critical-minerals push, including the $12 billion Project Vault reserve fund, and cheap grid power are reshaping mining economics.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • Maria Smirnova cites Agnico among the major gold names that took out all-time highs while juniors have not.
  • She points to Agnico as an example of a management team already emphasizing per-share metrics.

Key points on Artemis Gold

  • Cited by the Skeena guest as a valuation comparable for what Skeena could be worth in production, trading around a C$10 billion market cap.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • Operated Eskay Creek until shutting it down in 2008; the Skeena guest attributes that to 1990s BC permitting hostility, diesel-driven energy costs and low metals prices rather than a poor asset.
  • The guest contrasts Barrick's US$4 billion Pakistan project, facing local insurgency, with the safety of mining in BC's Golden Triangle.

Key points on Hecla Mining Company

  • Shawn Khunkhun says the Dolly Varden-Contango merger aims to create 'the next Hecla' - a safe-jurisdiction gold producer with a large silver inventory, which he calls the market's only such choice today.
  • Described as a roughly $20 billion primary silver producer and a cornerstone early investor in Dolly Varden.

Key points on Kinross Gold

  • Owns 70% of the Peak Gold joint venture and operates the high-grade Manh Choh mine in Alaska, giving Contango shareholders a major as operator.
  • Processes Manh Choh ore trucked 240 miles to its underutilized Fort Knox mill.

Key points on Lundin Gold

  • Named by the Skeena guest as a valuation benchmark - around a C$26 billion market cap - for where Skeena could trade once Eskay Creek generates cash flow.

Key points on Newmont

  • Mining Brucejack, described as one of its two big Golden Triangle operations.
  • Maria Smirnova notes Newmont, along with Agnico, hit all-time highs in this rally while juniors lag.

Key points on Aya Gold & Silver

  • Guides to roughly 6.8-7 million silver-equivalent ounces in 2026 - 5.2-5.8 at Zgounder plus 1.0-1.2 from Boumadine residues - which Benoit La Salle says should generate about $350 million of operating cash flow at $75 silver, funding Boumadine's development without banks or streams.
  • Zgounder is running at 3,700 tonnes per day, about 30% above nameplate, after a record 2025 of about 4.8 million ounces; an updated technical report frames an 11-year mine life at roughly 6 million ounces a year with all-in costs near $19.
  • Boumadine's historic residue stockpile is shipping 10,000 tonnes a month for 24 months at $3-4 million of monthly profit and about $11 all-in cost, while 200,000 metres of drilling (18,000 completed in January) feeds a June resource update on the current 450 million silver-equivalent ounces.
  • A $36 million 2026 budget completes the ramp to the granite floor and lifts plant capacity from 3,700 toward 4,200 tonnes per day; La Salle targets about 10 million ounces a year if exploration finds a second Zgounder-style structure.
  • Expects a NASDAQ listing in Q2 2026, refuses to hedge, and holds over $100 million in cash while selling in staged tranches - no sales below $95 in Q1 2026.

Key points on Contango Ore Inc

  • Merging with Dolly Varden in a deal voted March 17 and expected to close by end of March 2026, creating a gold producer with about $140 million of cash and roughly $150 million of annual free cash flow.
  • Manh Choh went from feasibility to production in three years, an 8 g/t open pit producing about 200,000 ounces a year with ore trucked 240 miles to Kinross's Fort Knox mill; Contango's attributed share is about 60,000 ounces, 2025 free cash flow reached $122 million, and life-of-mine AISC averages near $1,500 per ounce.
  • Its direct shipping ore model - trucking, railing or barging high-grade rock to underutilized mills - avoids building processing plants and tailings facilities, cutting capex and permitting time, but only works for very high-grade deposits.
  • Lucky Shot gets an 18,000-metre drill program and a planned $50 million spend to restart production in 2028 at 30,000 ounces a year rising toward 50,000; Johnson Tract (about 1 million ounces at 10 g/t) could add roughly 100,000 ounces a year, forming a ~200,000-ounce Alaska pipeline.
  • The portfolio is deliberately high grade: Manh Choh 8 g/t, Lucky Shot around 14, Johnson Tract 10, Homestake 7 and Dolly Varden 300 g/t.

Key points on AbraSilver Resource

  • Faces a packed 2026 catalyst path: RIGI approval expected within weeks, environmental permits by the end of Q1, a definitive feasibility study in Q2, a construction decision before end-2026, and first production in 2029.
  • Resource stands near 350 million silver-equivalent ounces after adding about 100 million ounces with one year of drilling; Phase 6 (15,000 metres, three rigs) is expanding Oculto and Jack ahead of a larger reserve and longer mine life in the DFS.
  • The December 2024 pre-feasibility used $25 silver and $2,000 gold yet showed a roughly 30% after-tax return, two-year payback and $540 million capex; at about $40 silver and $3,300 gold, John Miniotis says the return exceeds 50% with sub-one-year payback.
  • Argentina's RIGI regime cuts the tax rate to 25%, eliminates import and export duties and removes foreign-exchange restrictions for 30 years - which management says is worth billions in additional free cash flow at current prices.
  • Shallow, silver-rich Jack has tripled to 13 million tonnes and drives the first 6-8 years of the mine plan; major shareholder Central Puerto is studying grid power that could cut both capital and operating costs versus the planned solar-plus-diesel setup.

Key points on Skeena Resources

  • Received its final Environmental Management Act permit and is now fully permitted and fully funded - a $750 million Blackstone/Orion package against $560 million of capex - with Eskay Creek halfway built and cash flow targeted for 2027.
  • At spot prices the 2023 study implies about $1.4 billion of average annual after-tax free cash flow in years 1-6, versus $513 million in year one at the study's $1,800 gold and $23 silver inputs; AISC is $684 per gold-equivalent ounce over life of mine and $538 in the first five years.
  • About 450,000 gold-equivalent ounces a year would make it Canada's fifth-largest precious metals mine and its largest silver producer (9.5 million ounces of silver a year early on), with a mine-plan update expected around October-November 2026 to extend that profile past 10 years.
  • Negotiating to buy back two-thirds of the $200 million gold stream (an 18% IRR buyback right, forward-sold at $1,800 gold) and to refinance the 13% Blackstone/Orion debt with about $450 million of high-yield or private-credit paper via KKR and Bank of America, both expected around March-April 2026.
  • Argues Eskay Creek works now because of $0.04 per kWh hydro, a newly supportive BC government and today's prices - unlike when Barrick walked away - and frames potential value at about 7.5x its ~$2.1 billion EBITDA (roughly US$15 billion) versus a $4 billion market cap today.

Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals

  • Randy Smallwood says Wheaton is on a path to 1 million gold-equivalent ounces a year by 2029, two years earlier than its original 2031 target, after 2025 tracked the top of 600,000-670,000 guidance and the Hemlo and Spring Valley deals added immediate production.
  • Pascua-Lama is the major silver optionality: Wheaton holds 25% of an original 40-million-ounce annual silver plan (about 9-10 million ounces to Wheaton), its first line is 90% built and second 40%, and with Navidad's potential 2-2.5 million ounces the company could again rank among the world's largest silver producers.
  • Already the fifth-largest silver producer with 2025 guidance of 20-22 million ounces, though 65% of 2024 revenue came from gold after a deliberate shift into gold streams starting in 2013.
  • The Zinkgruvan stream - $75 million paid for silver at about $3.90 an ounce - now delivers roughly $140 million a year and has returned over $1 billion; Smallwood says actively managing partner health (annual site visits, more than half of contracts adjusted) is how streaming risk is minimized.
  • Sees structural silver supply weakness because most silver is lead-zinc byproduct and no new lead-zinc mines are being built; he would not be surprised to see silver above $100 by the end of 2026.

Michael Oliver's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Calls silver's 30% one-day drop a buying opportunity, saying no momentum structure broke - only sentiment - and reiterates a $300-$500 silver target for 2026, much of it by summer.
  • Argues silver is in a new-reality repricing like copper in 2005-06 and lead in 2007 after a 50-year $4-$50 range, with the log-scale breakout objective near $500.
  • Sees silver outperforming gold - it sat near 1% of gold's price a year ago and is now above 2% - following the relative-performance breakout at the close of November 2025.
  • Personally favors silver over gold and the miners over both; he says miners sit at the top of an 11-year relative-performance range and a breakout would produce a gusher in the group.
  • Notes gold merely matching its prior 8-fold bull-market gains implies about $8,500 - a level JP Morgan has recently echoed - and dismisses the 1980 Hunt Brothers analogy because no structural damage appears on his charts.

Randy Smallwood's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Has Wheaton on a path to 1 million gold-equivalent ounces a year by 2029 - two years earlier than planned - with 2025 tracking the top of 600,000-670,000 guidance and Hemlo plus Spring Valley adding immediate production.
  • Would not be surprised to see silver above $100 by the end of 2026 and argues supply stays structurally weak because most silver is lead-zinc byproduct and nobody is building new lead-zinc mines.
  • Calls Pascua-Lama his biggest lesson learned and the company's largest silver optionality: 25% of an original 40-million-ounce annual plan (about 9-10 million ounces) with the first line 90% built, plus Navidad's potential 2-2.5 million ounces a year.
  • Manages risk by actively monitoring partner health - every site visited at least annually, more than half of contracts renegotiated, and six or seven streams collapsed, sold or vented back to operators.
  • Tells the Zinkgruvan stream as the model win: $75 million for silver at about $3.90 an ounce now returns roughly $140 million a year and has paid back over $1 billion.

Benoit La Salle's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Guides Aya to roughly 6.8-7 million silver-equivalent ounces in 2026 - about $350 million of operating cash flow at $75 silver - and is self-funding Boumadine's development from internal cash rather than banks or streams.
  • Refuses to hedge and keeps over $100 million in the bank, selling in staged tranches and having sold nothing below $95 in Q1 2026 - 'silver in the bank is as good as money in the bank.'
  • Says Zgounder is running about 30% above nameplate with an 11-year, roughly 6-million-ounce-per-year plan and about $19 all-in costs locked in, and wants a second structure to lift output toward 10 million ounces.
  • Reports Boumadine residues earning $3-4 million a month, a June resource update on the current 450 million silver-equivalent ounces, 200,000 metres of drilling underway, and expects company output near 43 million silver-equivalent ounces once Boumadine is in production at about $13 all-in cost.
  • Believes silver supply will fall this year and next while industrial and investment demand keeps rising, and expects the current turbulence to settle by May-June 2026; a NASDAQ listing is expected in Q2.

Shawn Khunkhun's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Frames the merger of equals with Contango Ore as the way past the Lassonde curve: pairing Dolly Varden's silver with a cash-flowing gold miner that has permitting and development expertise and a proven direct shipping ore model.
  • Wants the combined company to become 'the next Hecla' - a safe-jurisdiction gold producer with a large silver inventory - a roughly $1 billion vehicle he says has no mid-tier peer.
  • Sees a path from 100 million ounces toward 200+ million: wolf-vein hits of about 300 g/t over 30-40 metre widths below sediment cover, Torbrit-style mineralization a kilometre from Torbrit, and the same signature 20 km north at Theo.
  • Says at $100 silver his priority is an economic plan to restart production rather than exploration for its own sake, with the merger funding year-round drilling across four districts.
  • Expects the gold-silver ratio to keep compressing toward 30 or 25 after falling from about 100 last May to roughly 60.

Maria Smirnova's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Treats silver's 30% one-day drop as a healthy correction and a buying opportunity - 'silver just went on sale' - and would be very surprised by a 1980-style 70% collapse because today's rally is fundamentals-driven with no Hunt Brothers-style corner.
  • Argues the bull market is early rather than late: juniors still trade at a discount to seniors on price-to-NAV, and she would only worry about a peak once juniors are flying.
  • Describes her stock-picking framework: 'how big can it get?', liquidity over minimum market size, near-spot metal price assumptions, per-share metrics, and focused portfolios of 30-40 names.
  • Likes copper as the other deficit metal given the scarcity of new large deposits, and points investors to Sprott's published country-by-country jurisdiction rankings.
  • Credits Eric Sprott for her approach - think big, insist on grade, stay optimistic, press winning positions, and be patient in a long-cycle business.

Eric Sprott's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Described by Maria Smirnova as her formative mentor: hunt for big deposits, emphasize grade, stay optimistic, believe in gold and silver, and press positions that are working.
  • Named by Shawn Khunkhun among the anchor investors behind Dolly Varden's roughly $185 million raise.

Elon Musk's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The Skeena guest says he copied Musk's Gigafactory playbook of starting construction before permits were granted, a calculated risk that lets Eskay Creek reach cash flow in 2027 instead of 2028-29.

Jimmy Connor's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hosts the virtual silver conference for Bloor Street Capital, interviewing Sprott, AbraSilver, Aya, Dolly Varden-Contango, Skeena, Wheaton and Silver Institute guests.
  • Reveals he has been long gold for two years with little silver exposure, views the recent pullback as a possible buying opportunity, and notes the gold-silver ratio compressing from about 100 last May to roughly 60.

John Ciampaglia's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues silver's long-delayed catch-up trade is in motion: after 14 years below the 2011 high of $50, the mid-$80s price still looks attractive, and a fifth straight annual supply deficit supports higher prices despite the volatility.
  • Runs the Sprott Physical Silver Trust at about $17 billion - 100% allocated, stored at the Royal Canadian Mint and Brinks, over 150 million ounces bought since 2020 - with positive year-to-date flows while its larger competitor saw outflows.
  • Sees speculative excess flushing out - a Chinese silver futures ETF that traded 60% above NAV, CTA-led derivative flows, and reported Chinese intervention against a large short - leaving a bull-versus-bear tug of war in the near term.
  • Frames silver as newly strategic: added to the US critical-minerals list, backed by a $12 billion US reserve-fund initiative, and squeezed by China's export restrictions in a market where 50-80% of some metals refining is China-based.
  • Advises investors to dollar-cost average, size positions for volatility, and consider Sprott's three vehicles - PSLV, CEF and the SLVR silver miners ETF - as ways to gain exposure.