Aya Gold & Silver ($AYA): From Updated PEA to Development at Boumadine

Investor TV Sep 22, 2026 49:35

Summary

Aya's Boumadine PEA shows a $3.5B base-case NPV and 93% IRR on $463M of capex, with no equity dilution needed.

An AISC of $1,100/oz in years one to five keeps Boumadine robust even if silver stays in the low $60s.

Full permits plus $200M cash and up to $300M in off-take prepayments leave the project fully funded through construction.

The guest calls Boumadine the best gold-silver project globally; the analyst host sees 10x potential as Wall Street ignores the build.

The updated PEA for Boumadine shows an after-tax NPV of $3.5B at base case ($5.5B at spot), an IRR of 93% (128% at spot), payback of 8 months, and a capex-efficiency ratio of 7.6, which the speakers describe as extremely rare for the sector.
Management says the decision to build Boumadine is already made: the project is fully permitted, water and power are secured, the site sits at 1,000m elevation in Morocco, and the $463M capex is self-funded with $200M cash and $250-300M of available EBRD debt plus $150-300M of potential offtake prepayments.
Boumadine is framed as an early-stage asset that has only seen 5.4km of a 6km structure drilled (320,000m) and remains open to the north and south; the company plans 400,000m of additional drilling in the next 18 months with 20 drills currently turning.
Planned production is 350,000 oz gold-equivalent per year at the 8,000 tpd PEA rate, scaling to roughly 425,000 oz at the 10,000 tpd rate being designed into the feasibility study, with cash costs around $998/oz and AISC of $1,100/oz for the first five years.
The share structure is unusually tight at 144M shares outstanding, with management, the board and four founding family offices controlling about 46% and BlackRock, VanEck and Vanguard holding roughly 25% combined.

Don Durrett cites 1911 Gold as an example of a producer whose valuation should re-rate once it is in production, noting the stock was around 50-55 cents US on the day of recording versus his estimate of roughly $1 US.

Top takeaway Don argues Aya is dramatically undervalued, saying Boumadine alone should be worth the current $4B market cap and that Zgounder is worth another $4B if silver prices rise, implying the stock trades at roughly half of intrinsic value.
He is deeply bearish on the macro set-up, arguing that with $40T of US debt and inflation above 2% for five years the Fed has no good choices, and that Warsh's September rate hike was a no-win move into a weakening economy.
He claims Wall Street is 'out to lunch' on the mining sector, noting that all gold and silver equities combined represent only about 0.1% of the investable global universe while GDX and GDXJ returned roughly 155% and 175% respectively the prior year.
He frames Aya as offering roughly 10x likely upside with 20x potential, modeling margins of $3,000-$5,000/oz if gold reaches $5,000-$8,000 by 2030 and noting production could scale toward 500,000 oz/year at under $3,000 AISC.
He points to 1911 Gold as proof that the market waits until a mine is actually built before assigning value, which is why he expects Aya to re-rate once Boumadine breaks ground in early 2028.

Top takeaway Benoit presents the updated Boumadine PEA as best-in-class, with $3.5B base-case NPV, 93% IRR, 8-month payback and 7.6 capex-efficiency, and notes the figures are based on only 5.4km of a 6km structure that remains open north and south.
He stresses the project is fully funded without equity dilution: $200M cash on hand, $250-300M of EBRD debt available if needed, and $150-300M of prepayment offers from offtakers who are competing for the pyrite concentrate.
He argues Boumadine is permitted, has water and power secured, sits at only 1,000m elevation, has full Moroccan government support, and uses the same team that just delivered Zgounder on time and on budget.
He outlines a scale-up from 8,000 tpd in the PEA to 10,000 tpd in the feasibility study, lifting planned output from 350,000 oz gold-equivalent to roughly 425,000 oz, with cash costs near $998/oz and AISC of $1,100/oz for the first five years.
He calls Boumadine 'the best gold-silver story on the planet' and says the company is also advancing additional copper-silver and gold structures on the district-scale land package, including 30 new permits acquired in the prior two months.

Top takeaway Durrett argues Warsh made a mistake with his first rate hike on September 16 because, with US debt at roughly $40T and labor data weakening, the Fed should be more focused on preventing an economic collapse than on fighting inflation.

Top takeaway Fenwick anchors the bullish Aya thesis by reading out Boumadine's headline economics - $1,100 AISC, ~$500M capex, ~175,000 oz of gold and 15M oz of silver starting up around 2029-2030 - and calling the company the number one quality gold-silver project globally.
He presses management on the no-dilution message and on the rationale for selling silver at ~$68/oz rather than holding it, forcing the discussion that ultimately confirms Boumadine funding will come from cash, debt and offtake prepayments.