Are We Staring At An Oil Crisis? Or Renaissance? | Doomberg
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Sep 9, 2026 1:46:11
Summary
Brent staying near $100 amid the Iran conflict shows the oil market has already priced in adequate physical supply.
Diesel, not crude, is the real bottleneck — Russia's 800K bbl/day exit hit 10% of a tight 7M bbl/day seaborne market.
Venezuela's US-backed oil deal could lift output from 1.1M to 2M bbl/day within two years if political constraints clear.
Argentina's Vaca Muerta is the world's most attractive underdeveloped hydrocarbon resource, with Milei-aligned reforms unlocking it.
Doomberg's central thesis: every oil crisis accelerates diversification, leading to lower long-term real prices.
Adam Taggart's takeaways
- Top takeaway Taggart argues the run-up in US Midwest diesel to roughly $6.30-$6.50 a gallon is an 'inflationary pulse' landing ahead of midterms, harvest, and the shopping season — pressing Trump into a gamble of prioritizing global markets over domestic voters.
- Taggart presses the bearish case on how durable Middle East oil flows will be post-conflict, asking whether diversified Western Hemisphere producers (US, Canada, Mexico) will permanently displace Gulf supply.
- Taggart questions the timeline and magnitude of the new Venezuela lease, pushing Doomberg on whether material flows can reach US Gulf Coast refineries faster than the multi-year pessimist view suggests.
- Taggart highlights Vaca Muerta as a potential major new Western Hemisphere producer and Canada as a 'black swan' to watch, given the trade dispute and proposed pipeline expansions to tidewater.
- In the second half with John Loder, Taggart defends selective hedging via protective puts and a measured extension of bond duration now that yields sit near cyclical highs, while flagging signs of weakening US market breadth.