John Loder

Are We Staring At An Oil Crisis? Or Renaissance? | Doomberg

Brent staying near $100 amid the Iran conflict shows the oil market has already priced in adequate physical supply. Diesel, not crude, is the real bottleneck — Russia's 800K bbl/day exit hit 10% of a tight 7M bbl/day seaborne market. Venezuela's US-backed oil deal could lift output from 1.1M to 2M bbl/day within two years if political constraints clear. Argentina's Vaca Muerta is the world's most attractive underdeveloped hydrocarbon resource, with Milei-aligned reforms unlocking it. Doomberg's central thesis: every oil crisis accelerates diversification, leading to lower long-term real prices.

As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out | David Hay

• Top takeaway Loder says annual central bank surveys show broad expectations of continued, significant increases in gold reserve holdings, a fundamental backdrop he says cannot be overlooked despite the pullback.
• He points to gold miner margins since 1970, where the gap between the gold price and all-in sustaining costs is as wide as it has ever been.
• He notes gold mining stocks still trade at a discount to gold itself and at valuation multiples near the low end of the last fifteen years despite those record margins.
• He caps his core portfolio at 12 to 15 percent in gold mining stocks and currently holds 5 percent in gold miners plus 2.5 percent gold bullion and 2.5 percent silver bullion.
• He says he added oil and gas service stocks at the end of September last year on relative strength and momentum, well before the Iran conflict, and that they have nearly doubled.

The guest argues oil's rally from $69 to the low $90s reflects a supply squeeze built on a decade of maintenance-only industry spending. WTI (West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark) is his yardstick, with a $70 to $100 range and upside spikes expected. He prefers energy equities over crude futures, naming EOG Resources as a specific pick trading near 10 times earnings. Uranium mirrors oil's late-June setup: depleted inventory, Russian enrichment reliance and new reactor demand tightening a neglected market. His real warning is market structure, as AI concentration, margin debt and possible Japanese capital repatriation could swamp passive inflows.

Is The Market Dangerously Expensive Now? | Kevin Muir

• Top takeaway John presents GMO data showing 60/40 portfolios have repeatedly suffered lost decades since 1900 and says there is a good chance we are in one now, while stressing these valuation gauges say nothing about short-term timing.
• He reminds viewers that lost decades are not gentle: the Nasdaq rose about 80% from October 1999 to its March 2000 peak, then fell more than 80% and took roughly 15 years to regain that high.
• He shows a retirement plan for a hypothetical $2.7 million client that looks sound on average-return assumptions but runs out of money when replayed with the actual 2000-2025 return sequence, urging near-retirees to stress-test their plans.
• He says New Harbor is near its 50% equity ceiling, would only consider 70-80% equity levels from much lower valuations, and recalls the firm began buying for clients in late 2008, ahead of the March 2009 bottom.

Kevin Muir argues record equity valuations have priced stocks for perfection, making a lost decade the sensible base case for future returns. The AI build-out echoes the dot-com bubble; a token mirage of forced employee usage may have inflated demand signals, risking a sharp repricing. Muir favors unloved real assets: oil producers benefit from strategic reserve restocking, while Chinese central bank demand keeps the gold bull intact. Gold miners trade cheaper than the metal itself, and silver's slide looks like a cyclical shakeout inside a secular precious metals bull. New Harbor's partners advise trimming equity exposure, stress-testing retirement plans against lost-decade returns, and holding silver through record ComEx physical deliveries.