Mayfair Gold Targets $1.4B in First-Six-Year Free Cash Flow at Fenn-Gib

Mayfair Gold's CEO Drew Anwyll says the Fenn-Gib project's first six years of mining could throw off roughly $1.4 billion in free cash flow at today's gold price, even after accounting for a strip ratio of about 6 to 1 and a planned average grade of 1.5 grams per tonne.

The CEO made the case in a recent interview at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, arguing that what makes the asset unusual is that its high-grade material sits at surface, which lets the team sequence higher-value ore early in the mine plan. That sequencing is what produces the headline free-cash-flow number: at roughly $4,400 an ounce US and a projected AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of just over $1,200, the implied margin is wide, and front-loading the higher-grade tonnes pulls that margin into years one through six.

The math from the pre-feasibility study, published at the beginning of January, was run on a $3,100 gold price. Spot is materially above that, which is why Anwyll chose to restate the FCF number using the current price. The first-six-year window also includes the AISC guidance — just over $1,200 an ounce for those years — and the project targets only about 25% of the total 4.3 million-ounce resource in the initial mine plan, with the remainder left as optionality for a later, larger development.

Permitting has moved. Mayfair completed FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) with engineering partner Senco in early August and, around the same time, filed to enter Ontario's new 1P1 process — One Project, One Process — a streamlined track the company describes as cutting a typical 3–4 year Ontario permit timeline to roughly 18 months to two years. Only three other companies have been accepted so far, and Anwyll is hoping Mayfair becomes the fourth and the first to clear the process. Acceptance is expected in the coming weeks.

The permitting strategy was deliberate: the project is sized to stay below the federal environmental assessment threshold, keeping it as a "made-in-Ontario" file rather than triggering a Joint Review Panel review that Anwyll says can run 3 to 8 years for large projects. Roughly three years of baseline environmental data is already in hand, and Anwyll credits the freeze on plant layout and footprint achieved in FEED as the prerequisite for filing. He expects to be fully through the 1P1 track by the time a construction decision is taken.

Capital structure is the next major gating item. Mayfair ended June with about $23 million in cash against a $2 million monthly burn, enough runway into Q1 but not through to a construction decision. Initial capex is in the $450 million range. Anwyll's current working assumption is roughly $300 million of project debt with the balance funded by equity; he notes the asset's short payback period has drawn interest from lenders, with closing targeted for late this year or Q1 of next year — ahead of the schedule the project actually needs.

Construction itself is targeted for 2028, with modular build being the chosen approach: major components like crushers, smaller grinding mills, and possibly float tanks fabricated off-site and shipped in. The logic is to spend more upfront to make the construction phase cheaper and shorter, on the theory that construction risk — not resource risk — is where mine projects tend to break.

First Nations engagement is a parallel track. Anwyll flagged proximity to the Abitibi and Ishibek communities (15–20 km from the site) and noted that Section 35 rights mean accommodation is non-optional; the relationship is treated as a partnership, not a stakeholder consultation. He hopes to have a key agreement in place by Q4 this year or Q1 next year, but is unwilling to rush it.

Exploration is also on the table again. A new VP Exploration, Audrea De Lazer, was brought on over the summer to work a south block along the Porcupine-Destor fault, which has defined the Timmins camp over its roughly 100 million-ounce endowment. A drill program is planned for January once the ground freezes. Longer term, Anwyll sees toll milling — shipping high-grade material to a third-party plant — as an additional option, noting neighbours are already moving ore about 60 km toward Timmins.

Anwyll's overall pitch to investors is patience through the construction phase: development-stage gold equities typically sit in a "no man's land" valuation band between feasibility and first pour, and the re-rating comes once the mine is producing. He argues Mayfair's combination of short payback, $1,200-and-change AISC, surface-sequenced high-grade ore, and a permitting track already in motion makes it a credible candidate to compress that timeline.