Drew Anwyll: This Gold Mine Could Generate $1.4 BILLION in Free Cash Flow

VRIC Media Sep 13, 2026 23:08

Summary

Anwyll projects roughly $1.4B of free cash flow from Fenn-Gib's first six years, driven by near-surface high-grade ore at current gold prices.

Ontario's new One Project, One Process framework could halve the typical 3-4 year permit timeline — Mayfair has applied.

Anwyll targets roughly $300M of debt against an estimated $450M initial capex, with a 2028 construction decision on the line.

First Nations partnership with Abitibi and Ishibek is a Section 35 permitting prerequisite, not a stakeholder checkbox.

Beyond the planned first mine, Mayfair positions itself as a multi-mine operator, with a south block pipeline along the Porcupine-Dester fault.

Drew Anwyll says Fenn-Gib can generate ~$1.4B of free cash flow over the first six years at ~$4,400/oz gold, based on the pre-feasibility (average ~1.5 g/t grade in the first six years, 6:1 strip ratio, high-grade material at surface).
Mayfair completed FEED with Senco in early August 2026 and submitted its application for Ontario's new 1P1 (One Project, One Process) permitting stream the same month; Anwyll expects to hear back within weeks and is aiming to be the first company out of the process, with the 1P1 stream cutting the normal ~3-4 year Ontario permitting timeline to ~18 months to 2 years.
The company held ~$23M cash at end of Q2 2026 with a ~$2M/month burn — runway into Q1 2027 but not all the way to a construction decision; Anwyll is targeting roughly $300M of project debt against ~$450M capex, with the balance as equity, and expects the debt facility to close around Q4 2026 / Q1 2027.
A construction decision is targeted for 2028; Fenn-Gib holds ~4.3M oz of resource but only ~25% (~1M oz reserve) is in the initial mine plan, with high-grade material deliberately brought forward in the schedule.
A new VP Exploration, Audrea De Lazer, has been hired to target the south block along the Porcupine Destor Fault, with a drill program expected to start in January 2027 once the ground freezes.

Top takeaway Martin says he has been buying developers, including some Mayfair shares, because he expects a re-rating at production as gold rises on US debt, deficits, and money printing — and says he is willing to be patient through the construction 'no man's land' of the Lausanne curve.

Top takeaway Anwyll is a self-described gold bull who frames the macro as supportive — 'the world's not getting any simpler,' with US debt and deficits ballooning — and argues a higher gold price will re-rate Mayfair once it is producing cash.
He deliberately kept Fenn-Gib below Canada's federal threshold to use Ontario's new 1P1 permitting stream, applying with three years of baseline environmental data and frozen engineering; he expects that to cut timelines to ~18 months to 2 years versus 3-4 historically, and argues a federal EA on a larger project can run 3-5 to 8 years.
He treats First Nations Abitibi and Ishibek as partners rather than stakeholders given Section 35 rights, and says he will not rush an agreement (likely Q4 2026 / Q1 2027); First Nations trust is also framed as a precondition for any later expansion to the full ~4.3M oz resource.
On funding, Anwyll prefers ~$300M of debt versus more equity to limit dilution, citing the project's short payback and 'respectable' operating costs (ASIC just over $1,200/oz in the first six years; PFS modeled at $3,100/oz gold versus ~$4,400-$4,450 spot at the time of the interview).
He acknowledges construction as the riskiest 'no man's land' of the Lausanne curve but expects a fundamental re-rating once Mayfair is producing; he has added chief projects officer Desmond Tranquilla, and credits the team — plus modular construction — with de-risking execution.