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"We're Only in the 3rd or 4th Inning": Kai Hoffmann on Mining Stock Upside

CEO.CA Sep 15, 2026 10:20

Summary

Junior mining stocks lag gold near $4,400 an ounce: the HUI (an index of gold miners) divided by bullion sits near half its 2011 level.

The guest argues roughly 100% upside remains in gold stocks, with generalist investors only now starting to catch up to strong producer balance sheets.

Major producers still value reserves near $2,000 an ounce on balance sheets, the guest's own explanation for why big acquisitions have not arrived.

Red flags when judging juniors: administrative overhead exceeding exploration spending, and companies long promising drill results without delivering any.

The guest calls critical minerals 'not an investable market', questions how many lithium projects the market needs, and sticks to gold, silver, and copper.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The guest notes Agnico Eagle keeps investing and has just bought a stake in Radisson Mining.
  • He counts Agnico among the bigger gold names whose shares have already run well, while arguing much of the sector's upside still lies ahead.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • The guest speculates Newmont may be waiting for the Barrick North America spin-out and could acquire it once it happens, which he calls logical.
  • He expects fallout from that spin-out, saying he is not sure Newmont would want to operate a mine in the Dominican Republic.

Key points on Newmont

  • The guest speculates Newmont may be waiting to acquire Barrick's North America spin-out when it happens, calling that a logical next move.
  • He argues majors like Newmont still value reserves at about $2,000 an ounce on their balance sheets even with gold around $4,400, which may explain their caution about big acquisitions.
  • He points to reshuffling already underway, with Newmont divesting Coffee in a deal whose buyer could become a new mid-tier producer.
  • He notes Newmont is the only S&P 500 gold stock, one reason mainstream media barely covers the sector despite strong results.

Key points on Pan American Silver

  • The guest cites Pan American among the bigger names whose shares have already done well early in the gold stock bull market.

Key points on Radisson Mining

  • The guest notes Radisson Mining has just sold a stake to Agnico Eagle, part of steady M&A activity that has not yet produced blockbuster deals.

Brien Lundin's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Quoted in the video arguing that the large producers are making so much money that it is time for them to go shopping; the guest agrees in principle but questions whether they really need to acquire.

Kai Hoffmann's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Argues the gold mining bull market is only in the third or fourth inning: with the HUI-to-gold ratio at roughly half its 2011 level, he sees at least 100% upside left in gold mining stocks.
  • Says producers were printing money as of the video (September 2026), with gold around $4,400 an ounce, strong Q2 financials, mostly net cash balance sheets and little debt, while generalist investors are only starting to catch on.
  • Doubts the majors truly need to go shopping: reserves are still valued near $2,000 an ounce, tier-1 deposits are scarce, and he expects reshuffling instead, such as Newmont possibly eyeing Barrick's North America spin-out and divestitures like Coffee.
  • Walks away from deals where G&A exceeds exploration spending or where a company talks about exploration for a long time without producing drill results.
  • Avoids battery and critical minerals, calling them not an investable market, and sticks to gold, silver and copper.