Skip to main content

Uranium Market Update | Justin Huhn and Jimmy Connor

Jimmy Connor Mar 22, 2026 43:46

Summary

Strait of Hormuz disruption risks sulfur supply for uranium processing; Namibia's Husab and Rossing face output losses if imports stall for weeks.

Kazatomprom's growth increasingly serves the east: almost half of 2025 sales went to China, and its new JV project's output goes entirely to Russia.

Term uranium sits near $90 a pound with spot around $83; Sprott's physical trust has bought about 6 million pounds of its 2026 allotment.

US executive orders target 10 large new reactors under construction by 2030, yet America consumes 45 to 50 million pounds yearly and produces far less.

The guest argues NexGen's Arrow is the supply linchpin, but timeline slippage and Kazakh mine decline rates leave the 2030s supply gap unresolved.

Key points on Fresnillo

  • The host cites Fresnillo, which he calls the world's largest silver producer, as a Mexican company that acquired a Quebec-based gold developer in late 2025 for about $800 million, to illustrate how buyers pay up for safe jurisdictions.
  • The host calls that deal price fairly cheap next to names like NexGen, using it to argue top mining jurisdictions command a premium.

Leigh Curyer's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest reports that NexGen's CEO (rendered "Lee Currier" in the transcript) disclosed the company has been in direct conversations with hyperscale tech companies about financing Arrow's development in exchange for an offtake agreement.

Justin Huhn's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He argues the uranium market's big event — replacement-rate contracting, where annual signings replace consumption — has yet to happen and would trigger a moonshot in the commodity price when it does.
  • He frames NexGen's Arrow as the linchpin project for balancing supply into the early 2030s, but warns its timeline is already about three years behind while utilities assume feasibility-study volumes arrive on schedule.
  • He expects the low-$80s spot price to act as a soft floor barring a liquidity event, with traders able to buy spot near $83 and sell forward in the low $90s, and calls any further risk-off selloff a strong buying opportunity.
  • He contends Kazatomprom's headline production matters less than its destination mix, with almost half of 2025 sales going to China and new JV output committed to Russia, and flags Kazakhstan decline rates converging with Cigar Lake's 2035 end around the same period.
  • He counsels investors to track the physical market rather than sentiment, arguing recurring 20-40% equity drawdowns have been buying opportunities within a multiyear bull market and that trading against emotion is essential.

Jimmy Connor's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He frames the US supply deficit for the guest — the world's largest uranium consumer uses 45-50 million pounds a year against roughly a million pounds of domestic production, with 20% of its grid nuclear-powered.
  • He raises the precedent of US government equity stakes in resource companies, citing Lithium Americas in Nevada and Trilogy Metals in Alaska, to ask whether Washington might take a stake in a uranium name.
  • He argues jurisdiction deserves a premium, pointing to what he calls a Mexican company and the world's largest silver producer acquiring a Quebec gold developer in late 2025 for about $800 million, and asks whether a similar buyer could target a permitted uranium developer.
  • He presses the M&A question on NexGen and Denison — fully permitted but still needing to build — and asks whether Cameco, BHP, or Rio might ultimately step in.