Uranium Flows in Q1 2026 | John Ciampaglia and Jimmy Connor
Jimmy Connor Apr 3, 2026 17:25
Summary
Guest John Ciampaglia argues uranium's slide from $100 to the mid-$80s after the Iran war reflects investor de-risking, not damaged fundamentals.
The uranium term price — the base reference price for future delivery — sits at $90 per pound, its highest level since 2008.
A carry trade — buying spot weakness and selling uranium forward — keeps spot and term prices tethered, cushioning market downdrafts.
India's state-owned energy company is signing multi-billion-dollar uranium contracts with Kazatomprom and Cameco, joining China in locking down long-term supply.
He expects a tight market: no meaningful new mine supply until roughly 2030, when utilities' uncovered requirements grow and price caps reach $150.
Jimmy Connor's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues the U.S. government is going all-in on nuclear power — four executive orders last year, a goal of starting construction on 10 reactors before 2030, and uranium added to the critical materials list — yet uranium prices and equities have not responded, leaving many retail investors frustrated.
- Notes India runs only 25 reactors and gets 3% of its grid from nuclear energy, which he calls enormous room for upside as its large population gains wealth and appliances like air conditioning.
John Ciampaglia's takeaways
- Top takeaway Argues no meaningful greenfield uranium supply will arrive for roughly the next five years while utilities' uncovered requirements grow really large around 2030, a tightening market he expects to be a powerful catalyst for significantly higher prices.
- Says uranium's long-term fundamentals remain intact despite the war-driven pullback: spot started 2026 near $81/lb, briefly touched about $100/lb for the first time in almost two years, then drifted to the mid-$80s after the Iran war began.
- Highlights India's state-owned energy company signing two multi-billion-dollar supply contracts — one with Kazatomprom, one with Cameco — joining China and South Korea in locking in uranium in a market he says has 100% inelastic demand with no substitution effect.
- Points to the term price at $90/lb as of the recording (early April 2026), its highest level since 2008 after six months of gains, with the spot-to-term carry trade keeping the two prices tightly tethered and the direction of travel up.
- Describes producers holding their strongest negotiating power in over a decade, with term-contract price caps now around $150/lb or dropped entirely, versus the roughly $30 fixed prices utilities could lock in 4-5 years earlier.