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Trillion-Dollar Mining Stocks, Developer Due Diligence & Stock Picks - Fund Manager Samuel Pelaez

MiningStockEducation.com Jul 28, 2026

Summary

Long-term commodity cycle drivers remain intact; the gold pullback to 3,900 is a buying opportunity as liquidity broadens from gold into copper and oil.

Copper developers with billion-dollar upfront capex are being repriced; only projects with strong shareholder registries attract takeover valuations.

M&A is now driven primarily by permitting speed, not project scale; ready-to-build assets get taken out first in hot cycles.

Concentration beats diversification in junior mining: cap top positions around 20% of the portfolio and go deep on fewer names instead of holding 70-80 stocks.

Policy alignment is essential — never invest against government policy; US FAST 41 and Canadian permitting reforms are tailwinds for domestic critical minerals projects.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • The guest argues Agnico Eagle's role as a major shareholder is what gives a junior a realistic chance of funding a tier-one project and being bought at a prime valuation.
  • He says investors 'piggyback' on Agnico's due diligence when it appears on a junior's share registry, treating that as comfort that unresolved issues (permitting, water) will be worked out.
  • Pelaez cites Agnico as having given back roughly 60% of its prior-year advance alongside gold pulling back from about $5,400 toward $3,800.
  • He watches the Agnico Eagle chart daily as a leading indicator for when the gold correction ends, on the view that gold equities typically lead the metal.

Key points on Anglogold Ashanti

  • AngloGold Ashanti is paired with Agnico Eagle as the second chart the guest watches daily for the rebound signal that would mark the end of the gold correction.
  • Pelaez groups AngloGold with the gold equities that have given back around 60% of their prior advance.

Key points on G Mining Ventures

  • The guest cites G Mining Ventures as proof that Guyana works as a mining jurisdiction, pointing to two major GMIN takeovers in recent years where permitting 'seemed to work well.'

Key points on ATEX Resources Inc

  • Pelaez argues ATEX benefits directly from piggyback due diligence: with Agnico Eagle as its largest shareholder, the market assumes the project's issues — including the unresolved water question — will be resolved.
  • He groups ATEX with Filo and Josemaria as one of the great copper projects in the Andes, but flags water as the one factor that 'isn't solved yet.'
  • He notes the market is not yet meaningfully penalizing ATEX for the lack of a final water solution, in contrast with a company he says 'maybe' has one and is trading at a 'tremendous discount to underlying value.'
  • He treats ATEX as evidence that, in a top jurisdiction with a top-tier shareholder, an open permitting question does not yet weigh materially on the valuation.

Key points on Prospector Metals Corp

  • Pelaez flags Prospector Metals as one of two names he is paying closest attention to heading into the second half of the year.
  • He highlights that the company is in its second drill campaign after 'exceptional' discovery holes last year, with the summer program designed to put dimensions on the discovery.
  • He calls the upcoming drill program a potential 'band burner' if it proves the strike extent and depth being targeted.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Pelaez is explicitly positive on Kevin Warsh's appointment to the Fed, framing Warsh (with Treasury Secretary Bessent) as the 'New York presence' tasked with letting liquidity flow more freely through the system rather than simply injecting more of it.
  • He expects Warsh's tenure to broaden the recent rally from financial assets into the real economy and the consumer, which he views as positive for commodities and the broader market.
  • He flags the immediate market reaction to Warsh's hawkish-tone appointment: gold dropping from about $5,400 to $3,900 and leading gold equities giving back around 60% of their advance — which he treats as a dip-buying opportunity.
  • His underlying thesis is that Warsh/Bessent improve 'productivity per dollar injected,' keeping policy supportive of risk assets without runaway equity expansion.

Brian Lenny's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Brian Lenny, the host, frames the discussion around three concrete topics — current market state, position sizing/index benchmarking, and M&A/upfront capex — and presses Pelaez on how realistic billion-dollar project financings really are.
  • Lenny contributes firsthand site-visit color from Argentina on the proposed trans-Argentina water pipeline, calling the idea 'bologna' and noting water has not yet been solved for projects like Filo, Josemaria, and ATEX.