Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Sep 17, 2026 1:18:52

Summary

Pre-midterm seasonal bottom should clear within a week, kicking off the historically bullish year-three rally of a presidential cycle.

A recurring seven-year cycle in margin debt points to a 2028 top, with crude oil and Treasury yields also set to crest that year.

Gold leads Treasury yields and crude oil by roughly 20 months, suggesting a sharp climb ahead in both over the next 14 months.

QE (Quantitative Easing, the Fed's bond-buying program) has historically sent Treasury prices lower, the opposite of what buyers would expect.

New Harbor pushes back on the bond bearishness, positioning for a tactical long-duration rally if equities roll over first.

Top takeaway The host argues the near-term bottoming process in stocks is close to resolving and that bullish seasonality takes over once it does.
Adam notes that the Fed raised rates by 25 bps the same day (as of 2026-09-17) in a unanimous 12-0 vote, with markets implying roughly 88% odds of further hikes by year-end.
Adam shares he is buying his first home, with the mortgage assumption scheduled for summer 2027 — which he expects to coincide with peak Treasury yields.
Adam moderates by challenging Tom on the strength of seasonality patterns and inviting comparison between pure chart analysis and New Harbor's macro-plus-TA approach.
Adam reports that equities closed down about 0.5% after the Fed announcement, precious metals and commodities sold off hard, and long-term Treasuries ended slightly green.

Top takeaway The guest argues that persistent U.S. deficit spending (close to $3 trillion added annually, about $40 trillion total debt) has been the major bullish force for markets since the GFC, with no 'plan B' in sight.
Mike agrees with Tom that the outcome of the midterm elections matters far less than the certainty that one is delivered, and that volatility should fade once that certainty is in place.
Mike is more cautious than Tom on margin debt, noting that record-high readings could fuel a blow-off top before reversing hard.
Mike disagrees with Tom on bonds, taking a bullish stance on high-quality U.S. Treasuries (about 7.5% of the model portfolio) on washed-out sentiment and a possible flight-to-safety rally.
Mike describes New Harbor's positioning framework: roughly 50% equity, prepared to trim into a parabolic move and use long-dated puts to hedge a downside break.

Top takeaway The guest argues the market is about a week away from the final low of the presidential cycle's bottoming process, after which he expects a 'big wall of upwardness' into year three of the term.
Tom flags a bearish divergence in corporate high-yield bonds as his main near-term worry, but says the McClellan oscillator on that A/D line is ringing out a bottom within roughly a week.
Tom models a roughly 20-month lag between gold and Treasury yields, implying a steep advance in 30-year yields into 2027 that mirrors gold's late-2025 surge.
Tom applies the same ~20-month gold-to-oil lead to crude, projecting higher oil prices into about August 2028 and citing commercial-trader COT positioning (still net short but timid) as confirmation.
Tom points to a roughly 7-year cycle in margin debt (last peak August 2021), suggesting the next topping point is around 2028 and leaving room for further upside despite record-high readings.