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This Gold Mine Is Worth $2.4 Billion With Just 2 Ounces Per Truckload - Liberty Gold

The Deep Dive Oct 7, 2026 12:59

Summary

Very low-grade ore can still pay: Black Pine skips the mill entirely, heap-leaching 0.29 g/t rock straight onto a pad to keep costs low.

The $2.4 billion headline NPV is mostly a higher gold price — at constant prices, the study's value sits within about 6% of 2024's.

All-in sustaining cost (AISC — the full cost to produce an ounce) of $1,566 sits high among peers, so a falling gold price bites harder.

Permitting and funding remain the gates: the permitted plan is smaller than the study's, and $411 million is still to raise, perhaps via royalty.

A 70% recovery assumption from uncrushed rock still awaits large column test confirmation, though Pegasus Gold leached the same rock for seven years.

Key points on Integra Resources

  • The host notes that at a uniform $3,250 gold price Liberty Gold would move above Integra Resources in the developer valuation peer group, so Integra currently screens richer on its own study's gold price.

Key points on Dakota Gold

  • The host notes that at a uniform $3,250 gold price Liberty Gold would rank above Dakota Gold in the developer valuation peer group, with Dakota currently trading richer than Liberty on each company's own study assumptions.

Key points on Liberty Gold

  • Liberty Gold's new Black Pine feasibility study claims a US$2.4 billion after-tax NPV, a ~61% IRR and a two-year payback from a low-grade 0.29 g/t deposit, but the host shows that at a constant gold price the value is within about 6% of the 2024 PFS's $552 million — the $1.8 billion headline jump comes from using $3,250 gold, not a better plan.
  • The study outlines a simple run-of-mine heap-leach operation (no crusher, mill or tailings dam) stacking 74,000 tons of ore a day, producing 202,000 ounces a year over the first five years and 2.8 million ounces in total, with reserves up 30% to 4 million ounces and initial capital up 26%.
  • Key open risks per the host: the permitted mine plan of operations is smaller than the study's stacking rate (the study case gets reviewed only after a record of decision expected January 2028), management calls the single-construction-season build aggressive, the 70% recovery assumption is still being confirmed in column tests, and years 7-10 fall to roughly 95,000-120,000 ounces at around $3,000/oz all-in costs.
  • Costs are rising: all-in sustaining costs land at $1,566 an ounce (up from $1,381 in the PFS) as grade slipped from 0.32 to 0.29 g/t, cash costs sit near $1,400, closure costs nearly tripled to $160 million without explanation, and about $411 million still needs to be raised against only $36 million in cash plus up to $60 million owed from the Gold Strike sale.
  • CEO John Gilligan favors selling a royalty on Black Pine's ~17-year, ~200,000-ounce-a-year production stream as an essentially non-dilutive funding route, arguing it could contribute a material share of the roughly $400 million build cost.

Key points on Wheaton Precious Metals

  • Wheaton Precious Metals holds the Black Pine royalty (just 0.25% once Liberty exercises its buyback) plus a 3.6% equity stake in Liberty Gold.
  • Wheaton has right of first refusal on any royalty sale Liberty Gold pursues to help fund the roughly $400 million build, which constrains that non-dilutive financing option.

Key points on Vista Gold Corp

  • Vista Gold is the only developer trading at a lower multiple than Liberty Gold on each company's own study numbers, with its Mount Todd project in Australia.
  • The host points out Mount Todd's failure bankrupted the company that originally closed Black Pine, yet at a like-for-like gold price Vista's project now trades at well under half of Liberty's NPV multiple.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway As host, Steve Hyland argues the feasibility study's $2.4 billion headline is a gold-price effect, not plan improvement — at a constant gold price Black Pine's value is roughly unchanged from the 2024 study.
  • Hyland frames the investment case as hinging on an unresolved list: a mine plan bigger than the one being permitted, an aggressive single-season build, and $411 million of unsecured funding — questioning whether CEO John Gilligan's margin-not-grade story can convince lenders.