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This Copper Mine Costs 1/6 to Restart | SSR Mining X Roxmore

The Deep Dive Oct 17, 2026 12:29

Summary

SSR Mining is paying US$464 million in cash for Roxmore Resources, buying the Converse gold project six kilometres from its existing Marigold mine in Nevada.

The market balked: SSR fell about 7% on announcement day, erasing more market value than the purchase price, because the gold won't flow until 2033.

Converse holds 5.2 million ounces, and SSR pays roughly US$75 per ounce — under half of analyst targets and well below recent developer takeout averages.

SSR's own plan is smaller and later than Roxmore's PEA: similar initial capital for roughly a third less annual gold, from a redesigned lower-price pit.

Marigold's updated 20-year plan lifts reserves 43% to 4.6 million ounces but front-loads US$1.4 billion of capital, including US$343 million in 2027.

Key points on Oceanagold

  • The host cites Oceana Gold as a deal benchmark, noting it agreed to pay about $225 an ounce for AusGold, mostly for measured and indicated ounces — far above the roughly $75 an ounce SSR is paying for Converse.

Key points on SSR Mining

  • SSR Mining agreed to buy Roxmore Resources for $464 million in cash (a $392 million enterprise value), getting the 5.2-million-ounce Converse Gold Project just 6 kilometres from its Marigold mine — about $75 an ounce, or roughly 0.14 times the PEA's NPV, with over $200 million in expected proximity synergies.
  • The market reacted badly: SSR shares fell 7.1% by midday (vs 1.7% for the gold miners ETF), erasing about $516 million of market cap — more than the purchase price — which the host attributes to timing, since over half a billion dollars is going out now for production that won't start until 2033.
  • SSR's development plan is smaller and later than Roxmore's April PEA: re-running the pit at Marigold's $2,200 reserve price yields 150,000–170,000 ounces a year on $800–900 million of initial capital — roughly the same capital as the PEA for a third less gold — with first production lined up for 2033 instead of a couple of years earlier.
  • Alongside the deal, SSR released a new 20-year Marigold mine plan: reserves up 43% to 4.6 million ounces, production of 231,000 ounces a year from 2027–2031 then 201,000 ounces a year to 2040, but $1.4 billion of capital with $343 million front-loaded into 2027, pinning 2027 free cash flow at just $41 million.
  • Using the $1.8 billion raised from selling its Çöpler and Hod Maden interests, SSR is redirecting cash to US assets, keeping the buyback story intact until meaningful Converse spending begins in the early 2030s; the deal is expected to close in December with 27% of Roxmore shareholders already supporting it.

Key points on Dakota Gold

  • Dakota Gold is cited as a US heap-leach developer valuation comp, trading at about $70 an ounce — close to the roughly $75 an ounce SSR is paying for Converse.

Key points on Liberty Gold

  • Liberty Gold is cited as a US heap-leach developer valuation comp, trading at about $117 an ounce despite already having a feasibility study in hand.

Key points on Revival Gold

  • Revival Gold is cited as the low end of the US heap-leach developer valuation range, trading at about $25 an ounce.