Ross Beaty on Investing and Lessons Learned | Jimmy Connor

Jimmy Connor Jun 13, 2026 22:21

Summary

AI and data center electricity demand is set to roughly double by 2030, the guest argues, locking in structural copper demand growth.

Easy surface copper is largely depleted; deeper, lower-grade ore means new projects need materially higher prices to be economic.

Mine development timelines have stretched from 5-10 years historically to 15-25 years today, complicating new copper supply.

Barrick's $5.5B first-phase capex and Teck's $2B Highland Valley extension underscore why copper development costs stay stubbornly high.

The guest cites Barrick's Reko Diq capex of about $5.5 billion for the first phase as evidence of how capital-intensive new copper supply has become, noting the project is on hold.
The guest uses Barrick's high capex to argue copper prices need to stay elevated to incentivize the deep, costly deposits the industry now requires.

The guest lists Equinox Gold as part of his gold-focused portfolio, founded at the start of 2018, which today has about 15,000 employees.
The guest positions Equinox as one of three current flagships, alongside Pan American Silver and Lumina Metals, in his multi-commodity portfolio.

The guest describes KGHM as Europe's largest copper complex, mining the Kupferschiefer copper shale in Poland for 70 years and now ranking among the world's largest copper producers.
The guest notes KGHM has been the world's second-largest silver producer for the past 50 years because the Kupferschiefer geology delivers silver as a byproduct of copper.
The guest argues KGHM, being state-controlled, never explored below its current mining levels, leaving deposits beyond KGHM's licenses open for Lumina to discover.
The guest frames Lumina's Novasol discovery as an extension of the same geology that has made Poland Europe's largest copper and silver producer.

The guest says Pan American Silver now has about 25,000 employees and was founded by him as an idea in 1994, which he frames as evidence that good mines drive broad economic development.
The guest describes a near-bankruptcy moment in 2001, when the share price was around $3, followed by a silver-price takeoff that took the stock to about $50 a share — a turn he explicitly attributes to luck.
The guest positions Pan American as his silver-focused flagship, distinct from his copper group (Lumina) and his gold group (Equinox Gold).
The guest says he stays on as founder-chair because he enjoys creating shareholder value and reports being thanked by people who say he 'made me a millionaire.'

Top takeaway The guest argues copper has the strongest demand outlook of any large-scale metal, citing electrification, AI data centers, EVs, and renewable energy, and noting US data-center electricity demand could rise from 4% to 9% by 2030.
The guest sees a tight supply outlook, noting Chilean output has fallen since 2018 due to lower ore grades and that new deep deposits are far more expensive to develop.
The guest expects copper prices to remain robust but not double, framing today's market as 'pretty toppy' and advising investors to take some money off the table ahead of the next cycle.
The guest credits his own success largely to luck, pointing to his Vancouver upbringing and to a near-bankruptcy moment at Pan American Silver in 2001 when the share price was around $3 before silver's takeoff took it to about $50.
The guest describes himself as a serial entrepreneur on his 16th company and his last, staying on as founder-chair because good mines generate jobs, taxes, and community development.

Top takeaway The guest cites Robert Friedland's claim that roughly 700 million tons of copper have been mined since the beginning of time and a similar amount will be needed over the next 18 to 22 years, framing a long-run supply gap.