Pete Speaks 10/9/26 6:00AM ET
Peter Grandich Oct 9, 2026 12:10
Summary
Grandich flags deteriorating market breadth — more new lows than new highs — as evidence the support beneath large names is weakening.
The upcoming election is his primary driver, and he now sees crash potential in US equities that he did not expect a few days ago.
His bear case is arithmetic: $50 trillion of debt at 5% means $2.5 trillion in annual interest, roughly half of last year's record revenue.
He stays in short-dated T-bills of one year or less and will not lock money away in long-term bonds while he sees rates working higher.
In precious metals he bought weakness, re-entering Radisson Mining and Group 11, while holding off on uranium until tax-loss selling season.
Key points on Radisson Mining
- Grandich says he re-entered Radisson Mining as one of two new precious-metals positions, adding to them while he expects further weakness in the metals.
- He frames the repurchase as a quality call: he says he respects the management and counts Radisson among his favorite junior resource names outside the positions he already owned, and he notes he did not get the size of the buy he wanted because the metals rose on the day he recorded.
Peter Grandich's takeaways
- Top takeaway Grandich says his view on the US stock market changed only a few days ago: still never bullish, but he now flags the potential for a hard fall as deterioration underneath the big names broadens.
- His evidence is breadth rather than headlines, pointing to many stocks performing poorly and sitting well off their highs and to sessions where new lows outnumber new highs, which he reads as a weakening foundation; he calls the upcoming election the main market driver right now.
- On bonds he stays out of long-dated paper and owns only T-bills of one year or less, which he says pay around 4% with no loss of principal, and he argues rates must keep working higher regardless of inflation so that capital keeps coming to a US that spends more than it takes in.
- His debt arithmetic is the core of that call: roughly $40 trillion of hard national debt as of this October 9, 2026 commentary and a Congressional Budget Office projection he cites revised up to $67 trillion by 2034, and at $50 trillion with rates at 5% the interest bill alone would be about $2.5 trillion a year, roughly half of last year's $5.2 trillion in federal revenue.
- In the metals he is buying weakness instead of waiting: he added to existing positions and re-entered Radisson Mining and Group 11 Resources, though a rise in precious metals on the day left him far short of the larger position he wanted, and he is on alert for uranium stocks without buying yet, expecting they can still go lower into tax-law selling season.