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Pete Speaks 10/2/26 10:00AM ET

Peter Grandich Oct 2, 2026 15:51

Summary

He reads the soft payroll report as genuine weakness, and says the pre-release futures selloff implied someone already had the number.

His Fed call: political pressure weeks before the election blocks a rate hike regardless of the October 14 inflation print.

Large deficits, not just inflation, are pushing yields higher as Japan returns as a marginal buyer of US debt.

He is bearish major indexes via bear call spreads and sees gold defensively weak while physical demand stays thin.

He sets accumulation levels in five mining names — Agnico Eagle, Radisson, North Isle, Group 11 and MLM — and flags uranium for a further pullback.

Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines

  • His case for owning Radisson rests on Agnico Eagle eventually buying it: "I think it's a matter of time to Agno Eagle steps up and buy them. It's still probably 12 to 18 months away."
  • He would only step in at a discount to the price Agnico Eagle recently paid, saying that buying Radisson "a 10 or 15% below what Agno Eagle recently Paid" "would make me feel good" and would be "a very good purchase".

Key points on Radisson Mining

  • His stated entry level is under C$1.00: "I really, really think if for some way that I can get Radisson under $1 Canadian, which May not happen", and at that price he calls it "a very good purchase".
  • The buy trigger is framed as a discount rather than a fixed level: "a 10 or 15% below what Agno Eagle recently Paid" is what "would make me feel good".
  • He treats an Agnico Eagle takeover as a near-certain but distant outcome, "a matter of time" to "buy them" and "still probably 12 to 18 months away", while judging the downside small: "it'd be hard to be risk of principle there".
  • Radisson is one of three sponsors of the online conference he is staging, where each sponsor "will all make presentations and updates on what's happening there". He gives the date as December 8 and hedges it: "Hopefully I got that right". No year is stated.

Peter Grandich's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He called the soft employment report before it landed, telling a friend "this number It's going to be real weak", and uses the weakness to keep building bearish equity positions, suggesting bearish major-index call spreads. He reads wage growth as "nearly nonexistent" at one-tenth of one percent and says "Americans keep spending more than they make", which "can't go on forever".
  • He argues the Fed will not hike again in October if the October 14th inflation number comes in below expectations just before their meeting, because "there's too much political. Pressure just a few weeks away from the election to do that", even though "They really want to get control of everything they raise again no matter what". He thinks Republicans are "in big trouble" and expects "huge Impacts on markets in 2027".
  • He rejects the idea that peak rates have arrived, arguing the only way to keep attracting money for the deficits is "To raise interest rates" while other bond markets are becoming more attractive. He sees "no reason yet" to lock away bonds and would stay away from the corporate sector.
  • He expects the 10-year yield back at 5.30% and possibly closer to 5.40% within about a week and before month-end, measured from the October 2, 2026 recording.
  • On gold he thinks it "still wants to test lower, at least in the very short term" and is "holding my purchasing power back" to build positions on further weakness. More broadly he is demoting metals to a "second or third tier" focus behind his faith-and-finance content.