Per Jander: Insights on the Uranium Market
Summary
Spot uranium is held near a hard $85/lb floor because record term prices of $96-$97 let utilities, traders, and producers step in as a carry trade — Pierre sees very little downside at $90.
Term contracting year-to-date looks low at 37M lbs, but huge unreported Indian deals with Cameco and Kazatomprom ($2B each, ~18-20M lbs) hide a genuinely active fall market.
The U.S. NNSA just committed to 4M lbs/year of U.S.-origin uranium for 10 years starting 2030, against current U.S. mine output of only ~2M lbs/year — a clear domestic supply gap.
Conversion sits near $60/kg and enrichment spot around $215/SWU, both at all-time highs; the bulk of post-Ukraine rush-buyer demand has rolled back to a steady U3O8 run rate.
Pierre says he is talking to SMR developers who have not yet secured fuel, expecting new demand from that segment as units advance.
Per Jander's takeaways
- Top takeaway Per Jander argues spot uranium has a hard floor at $85 backed by an all-time-high term price of $96-$97, with utilities, traders and large producers stepping in below that — he sees 'very little downside' at $90
- He says the 37M lbs year-to-date term-market figure is misleading because it omits two large Indian contracts, one with Kazatomprom and one with Cameco estimated at around 20M lbs and close to $2 billion each
- He highlights the just-announced NNSA tender — 4M lbs/year for 10 years from as early as 2030, U.S.-origin only — as 'a very significant utility just entering the market' against current U.S. production of about 2M lbs YTD
- He flags enrichment spot at an all-time high of $215/SWU and conversion around $60/kg, both far above pre-Ukraine war levels
- He is seeing a small rotation from copper into uranium in recent weeks, but argues uranium still feels 'underinvested' relative to the setup heading into fall