NexGen Energy Update | Leigh Curyer and Jimmy Connor
Jimmy Connor Apr 6, 2026 29:18
Summary
NexGen is fully permitted and has begun construction at Rook I in Saskatchewan, targeting first production in 2030 after a roughly 48-month build.
Rook I economics look sharp: $1.5B US capex, $800M already funded, sub-12-month payback at spot, and up to 30M lbs/year (~20% of global supply).
NexGen's Patterson Corridor East (PCE) discovery 3.5 km from Arrow has four rigs active and could 'completely change the economics' as Phase 2.
Management expects uranium prices to push well past $100/lb as major-producer incentive prices approach $70/lb and supply stays tight.
Saskatchewan provincial bodies are co-running training programs in local communities and Saskatoon, drawing 400+ applicants for 16-20 recent roles.
Leigh Curyer's takeaways
- Top takeaway Curyer argues uranium prices will move 'significantly past $100 USD per pound' because major producer all-in costs (including sustaining capex) are already approaching $70 USD/lb, and only one of the mid-2000s top five uranium mines remains in production today.
- He argues NexGen will rank 'in the top 10 mining companies worldwide on an after-tax cash flow basis' at current uranium prices, since Arrow mines only about 1,300 tons of ore per day thanks to very high ore grade.
- He commits publicly to an offtake strategy that keeps NexGen fully exposed to the uranium spot price at delivery rather than locking in fixed prices with utilities.
- He frames the uranium supply side as 'very fragile,' citing recent Kazakhstan-China and Cameco-India utility deals and the absence of new projects outside NexGen and Denison, and says contracting urgency among utilities is 'elevating'.
- He presents the seven-year permitting timeline as a strategic advantage, saying it allowed NexGen to plan construction in detail, attract strong labour interest (over 400 applicants for recent roles), and align with local communities ahead of the build.