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Kinross Gold Update | Andrea Freeborough and Jimmy Connor

Jimmy Connor Feb 3, 2026 20:14

Summary

Kinross approved three US projects adding about 3 million ounces — up to 400,000 ounces annually from 2028 — extending Nevada mine lives into the 2030s.

Economics assume $4,300 gold: combined AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) of $1,650 and $4.1 billion NPV.

Reusing existing mills and infrastructure keeps build costs low — $400 million Phase X, $485 million Curlew, $490 million Redbird 2 — with payback under two years.

Great Bear in Ontario and Lobo Marte in Chile lead the pipeline; Great Bear targets 500,000 ounces a year at $800 AISC from late 2029.

Kinross expects $1 billion net cash at year-end 2025, lifted its dividend 17%, completed its $600 million buyback, and guided 2026 capex to $1.5 billion.

Key points on Kinross Gold

  • Shortly before this update, Kinross approved construction of three US projects — Phase X at Round Mountain, Curlew at Kettle River, and Redbird 2 at Bald Mountain — and Andrea Freeborough says together they add about 3 million ounces of production, contribute up to 400,000 ounces a year in peak years starting in 2028, and carry combined economics at $4,300 gold of $1,650/oz AISC, $4.1 billion NPV, 55% IRR, and payback in under two years.
  • The two underground projects start in 2028 and reuse existing mills: Freeborough says Phase X adds about 140,000 ounces a year of low-cost bulk tonnage to 2038 for $400 million of initial capex, while Curlew adds about 100,000 ounces a year over an 11-year mine life for $485 million, with a $1.2 billion NPV and 44% IRR at $4,300 gold.
  • Redbird 2 plus satellite pits at Bald Mountain extends open-pit mining to 2032 and adds 640,000 ounces to the mine plan, at $490 million capex, $1,465/oz AISC, a $1 billion NPV, and 58% IRR at $4,300 gold, per Freeborough.
  • On the producing base, Freeborough says Tasiast guides to about 500,000 ounces in 2025 through 2027 during higher stripping before returning above 600,000 ounces in 2028-29 from West Branch 5, while Paracatu has produced over 500,000 ounces for seven consecutive years with reserves of nearly 5 million ounces.
  • On the balance sheet, Freeborough says Kinross turned net cash positive in November, expects about $1 billion of net cash at year-end 2025 with no debt maturities until 2033, returned $750 million to shareholders in 2025 (dividend up 17%, $600 million buyback completed) alongside about $700 million of debt repayment, and guided 2026 capex to $1.5 billion versus $1.15 billion in 2025.

Andrea Freeborough's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Her central argument is that the three newly approved US projects are resilient: the metrics were published at $4,300 gold, which she calls conservative relative to spot, and she says the projects still make sense at much lower gold prices.
  • She argues all three projects hold significant upside beyond the announced mine-plan inventory, and that additional ounces at Curlew and Phase X would come at relatively low incremental cost because the initial capex already covers the defined ounces.
  • She is deliberately building financial strength rather than pushing cash out: after reaching a net cash position in November, she expects about $1 billion of net cash at year-end 2025, sees the high gold price as an opportunity to hold cash above the minimum balance, and notes no repayment pressure with the next maturity in 2033.
  • Her capital allocation stance is reinvestment first — the three projects fit inside $1.5 billion of 2026 capex funded from operating cash flow — while keeping the dividend (raised 17% in November) and the buyback, with a fuller update promised at the February year-end results and guidance.
  • She repeatedly points to mine-life optionality: a large defined resource and exploration targets across the Bald Mountain land package, studies on open-pit expansions and possible underground mining at Tasiast, and potential Paracatu mine-life extension beyond the 2030s at higher gold prices.

Jimmy Connor's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He structures the interview as a project-by-project breakdown of Kinross's three newly approved US builds, pressing Freeborough for capex, NPV, IRR, and production profiles on each before turning to the producing mines.
  • He closes by asking Freeborough to preview coming news flow — project updates, Great Bear and Lobo Marte, and the February year-end results and 2026 guidance.