Kevin Smith: Metals Pullback Creates Buying Opportunity for Crescat Capital
Summary
Crescat's Kevin Smith calls the metals pullback a buying opportunity, arguing hawkish Fed rhetoric cannot fix the fiscal imbalances driving gold higher.
His activist exploration strategy takes early, large stakes in juniors targeting tier-one gold, silver and copper discoveries, vetted by two PhD geologists.
Majors are returning cash instead of replacing reserves, so he expects them to eventually buy junior discoveries to bridge the production cliff.
His $20,000 gold model assumes global money supply growth of 7% annually against 1.5% mine supply growth, or a 50% equity drawdown with dollar devaluation.
Exploration stocks only recently bottomed against gold after a 15-year bear market, and he expects a retest of the early-2026 highs within a year.
Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines
- The guest cites Agnico Eagle's purchase of Rupert Resources as one of the few major-miner acquisitions so far, still far below what he expects.
Key points on Newmont
- The interviewer cites Newmont siphoning off several projects as an example of majors prioritizing cash returns over growth, which the guest affirms.
Key points on Outcrop Silver & Gold
- A paid sponsor segment describes Outcrop Silver's Santana project in Colombia as one of the highest-grade primary silver projects globally.
- The segment claims a substantially increased updated mineral resource estimate and a pathway past 100 million high-grade silver-equivalent ounces, without giving figures.
- It reports initial test recoveries above 96% via a gravity circuit and flotation without cyanide, and says the company is advancing toward a PEA for rapid development.
Key points on Eloro Resources Ltd
- The guest counts Eloro Resources among his names, crediting it with what he calls the largest silver discovery in the world today.
Key points on Sitka Gold Corp
- The guest calls Sitka Gold one of the largest positions in Crescat's fund, describing it simply as "a gold story".
- He notes Sitka carries tungsten alongside its gold, part of the fund's critical-metals exposure.
Kevin C. Smith's takeaways
- Top takeaway The guest argues the metals pullback since the Iran war is a buying opportunity, and that hawkish Fed rhetoric will not fix the world's fiscal imbalances.
- He runs an activist exploration strategy: early, large stakes in juniors targeting tier-one gold, silver, and copper discoveries, vetted by two PhD geologists.
- He warns majors are returning cash instead of replacing reserves, so a production cliff should eventually force them to buy junior discoveries.
- He lays out two independent paths to a $20,000 gold price in three to seven years: global money supply growing about 7% a year against 1.5% mine supply growth, or a 50% equity drawdown plus dollar devaluation.
- He calls the cycle still early and expects a retest of the early-2026 gold and silver highs within a year.