Jeff Christian & Josef Schachter - Gold And Energy: Central Bank Buying & Undervalued Energy Stocks

The KE Report Aug 29, 2026

Summary

Gold bull market is moving from mid to late stage; further upside is likely but a cyclical peak may arrive within one to two years.

Central bank gold buying follows price rather than driving it - central banks are price-sensitive and buy more when gold dips.

US stablecoin regulation allows operators to sever the token-to-asset link, plus self-audited gold holdings - a red flag for tokenized metal.

Solar has driven silver fabrication demand growth for a quarter century but that pillar may have peaked in 2025 with an 8-10% drop ahead.

Canadian energy juniors trade under two-times cash flow; oil likely stays in $75-90 range until November midterms with LNG arbitrage wide open.

Top takeaway Christian argues central banks were net buyers of about 2.9 million ounces through June 2026 (7.8 million gross), with Poland, China, and Uzbekistan accounting for most demand, and reverses the usual causal story by saying gold prices drive central bank activity rather than the reverse.
Christian frames the current gold bull market as 7 years in (since 2019) and says it is moving from mid to late stage, with a possible cyclical peak in the next one to two years even though the macro backdrop remains supportive.
He warns that new US stablecoin legislation lets operators sever the link between stablecoins and underlying gold or Treasury holdings at their discretion, and says self-audited gold bars held by some of the largest stablecoin issuers are reminiscent of the late-1970s/early-1980s precious-metals frauds.
On silver, Christian argues industrial demand outside solar has been declining for 25 years, that solar silver use may be off 8-10% in 2026 after peaking in 2025, and that AI-driven silver and copper demand could unwind like the 1998-2000 internet bubble and the 2006-2009 CMO/CDS bubble.

Top takeaway Schachter sees oil stuck in a $75-$90 trading range through the November 3, 2026 US midterms and argues a lame-duck outcome could push WTI down toward $70, while continued war risk keeps a $15-$20 war premium in the market.
He downplays urgency around refilling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, noting current inventory of 289.7 million barrels is still 90-120 million above the 180-200 million barrel level where Department of Energy analysis flags cavern damage.
Schachter highlights the crack spread blowing past $100 a barrel as a windfall for refiners, driven by Ukraine-related damage to Russian refineries and Chinese export restrictions, and expects unusually strong Q3 results.
On natural gas, he points to a wide international arbitrage (TTF around $23/MCF, Asia $25/MCF vs. NYMEX under $4) and frames LNG exporters as the main beneficiaries, with US production potentially rising from 19-20 BCF/day to over 30 BCF/day by decade-end.
He draws a parallel to the 1974-81 oil cycle when producer multiples went from 2x cash flow to 8-10x, recommends moving energy exposure from 80% to 100% of target weight, and is headlining the October 17 Catch the Energy Conference in Calgary.