Jeff Christian: Gold Can Hit $5,000 Before Year-End

Mining Network Sep 16, 2026 34:53

Summary

Gold's slide from $4,600 to $4,300 reflects rate-hike expectations and profit-taking, not a break in the bull market, Christian argues.

The raw correlation between interest rates and gold is near zero; why rates are rising matters more than the rise itself.

CPM Group targets $4,800-$5,000 gold by year-end, driven by US midterms, the Iran war and a possible AI-trade unwind.

Investment flows set gold's price short term, but mine supply, scrap recovery and jewellery demand cap how far a squeeze runs.

Core CPI excluding food and energy at 2.4% in August signals underlying disinflation and growing recession risk, per Christian.

The segment reports that an updated mineral resource estimate for the Santana project raised indicated resources to 58 million silver-equivalent ounces, roughly 73% of it silver with the rest gold, and describes a pathway to more than 100 million high-grade silver-equivalent ounces across discovered veins and exploration targets.
Santana is presented as one of the highest-grade primary silver projects globally, located in Colombia's Tuluma region with existing paved-road access, power lines, and available water.
Initial metallurgical testing is reported to deliver recoveries above 96% and a clean precious metals concentrate through a simple gravity and flotation circuit that does not require cyanide.
The company is described as advancing toward a PEA to support a rapid development timeframe, with the segment citing strong local community support and a newly elected pro-mining national government in Colombia.
The segment argues that high-grade projects of this type can be built at smaller scale while still generating substantial silver and gold production and often the highest profit margins; Outcrop trades on the TSX under the ticker OCG.

Top takeaway The video ties gold's early-September slide from about $4,600 to $4,300 per ounce primarily to rate-hike expectations following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, which Jeff Christian calls the main driver alongside investor profit-taking.
The host notes Warsh's decision not to provide forward guidance has made forecasting harder; Christian responds that markets may be underestimating the Fed's ability to change direction, since it can move rates at any time rather than only at FOMC meetings.

Top takeaway As of mid-September 2026, Christian forecasts gold could reach $4,800 to $5,000 by year-end, driven by the US midterms, the ongoing Iran-US war, and a possible sharp decline in US stocks as investors back away from the AI speculative bubble, with buying as broad-based as in late 2025 and January 2026.
He argues rising rates are not inherently bearish for gold: the measured correlation is near zero (about negative 16% on an inflation-adjusted basis), rates rising on recession, inflation, and deficit fears are good for gold, and only real rates above 3% (implying T-bills near 6.4% with 3.4% inflation) would pull investors away from the metal.
He says the AI and data-center buildout has been a headwind that diverted capital from precious metals, accounting for roughly 40% of the S&P 500's rise and about 30% of first-half US GDP growth, but could become a strong tailwind within 12 months if the speculative bubble deflates.
His firm sent clients two butterfly call spreads ahead of the November midterms, modeled on its October 2016 election trade that reportedly returned 125% in a month, on the view that gold can spike sharply regardless of which side wins.
He rejects extreme calls like $40,000 gold, arguing gold remains a physical commodity: if the price returns to $5,000, investors who paid less than $1,000 on average could sell even 1% of the roughly 2 billion investor-owned ounces, adding about 20% to annual supply and pressuring the price.