Is The Market Breaking Out Or Breaking Bad? | New Harbor Financial

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® Aug 20, 2026

Summary

New Harbor partners read the broad market as breaking out: the S&P 500 has pushed past 7,000 and equal-weight indices like RSP print new highs.

They interpret today's expanded Treasury buyback as stealth intervention, not QE — a yield-curve twist aimed at capping long-end yields.

Gold above $4,500 and silver near $66 reflect what they call a debasement regime, with policy tools steadily eroding the dollar's purchasing power.

The GDX gold miners ETF just broke out of a multi-month triangle after bullish percents washed out under 10% — a historically rare setup.

TLT and other long-duration Treasuries likely have a near-term floor as buybacks ease yields, though the longer-term debt trajectory remains murky.

Top takeaway Adam Taggart states that the single trend he has the most confidence in over the coming years and decades is that fiat currency will continue to lose purchasing power, potentially at an accelerating rate.
Taggart also notes that rising bond yields do not appear to be driven primarily by inflation expectations, citing analyses showing forward inflation expectations have not meaningfully risen in months.

Top takeaway Mike Preston argues the broad market is breaking out, pointing to the S&P's recovery past 7,000, a fake breakdown below the 50-day moving average, and a fresh push to new highs while IWM and the RSP equal-weight index hit new highs; the New Harbor system has them at roughly 50% equities, which for them is offense mode.
On precious metals, Mike is 65–70% convinced the trend has turned back up; he sees targets of roughly $6,500 on gold, around $150 on silver, and a potential doubling of GDX from about 100 to about 200 over the next couple of years, while recommending only 5–10% in bullion given how painful past drawdowns have been.
He reads today's Treasury buyback of mid- and long-duration debt — combined with $40 trillion in national debt — as stealth QE and expects the next crash to trigger much larger Fed easing, with the balance sheet potentially expanding from roughly $8 trillion toward $20 trillion or more, which he views as a structural tailwind for gold and silver.
On TLT, Mike argues that in a crash Treasuries would still likely be the preferred safe haven because alternatives like high-grade corporates offer too little spread over a 5.2% tax-free Treasury, and he expects TLT to be a good trade over the next couple of years if equities roll over.

Top takeaway John Lodra frames today's Treasury buyback announcement as a sign of intervention rather than stewardship, noting it appeared right as long-end yields hit multi-year/multi-decade highs and as the July monthly deficit ran near the biggest since 2021; he stresses this is not QE — the Treasury is shifting long-term debt for short-term debt, similar to a maturity/duration twist.
He highlights a healthy, systematic broadening of the rally: equal-weighted indices outperforming mega caps, small caps gaining on large caps, and lagging sectors like banks, real estate, and healthcare rotating back into relative-strength favor over the past several months.
Lodra treats the debasement trade as a multi-year regime rather than a short-term trade, arguing governments historically print and extend rather than default or become austere, which underpins a persistent bullish stance on precious metals despite the earlier-year pullback.
On TLT, Lodra is cautiously constructive near term — expecting a possible test of the upper end of the multi-year range (roughly 80 to the low 100s) on the back of Treasury intervention — while cautioning that the longer-term path for long-duration bonds remains challenging given the fiscal backdrop.