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How TRX Gold ($TRX) Plans to Grow Production to 100,000 Ounces Per Year

Nordic Funds Aug 7, 2026

Summary

The CEO outlines a plan to triple output at Buckreef Gold from roughly 30,000 oz/year to a targeted 80,000–100,000 oz/year via a new 3,500-tonne-per-day circuit.

The roughly $50M expansion is self-funded from current ~$20M quarterly adjusted EBITDA, $27M cash, and limited debt — no shareholder dilution is planned.

Buckreef sits on a 1.5M oz resource at about 2.5 g/t; a four-rig drill campaign will convert ounces and test nine high-priority exploration targets.

The CEO cites persistent government deficits, central-bank buying, geopolitical risk, and sticky inflation as durable structural supports for gold prices.

Key points on Barrick Mining

  • The guest cites Barrick only as a prior employer of TRX Gold's CFO Mike Leonard, noting Leonard spent much of his career there and at PwC.

Key points on Perseus Mining

  • The guest points to Perseus as a neighbouring operator in the Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt, noting Perseus is currently building a roughly $500 million project in the Sag area, which he uses to validate the district.

Key points on TRX Gold Corp

  • The CEO outlines a path from the current ~30,000 oz/year run-rate to a target of 80,000-100,000 oz/year by adding a 3,500 ton-per-day circuit alongside the existing 2,000 ton-per-day plant for combined ~5,500 ton-per-day capacity, with an updated PEA expected in fall 2026.
  • TRX Gold is self-funding roughly $50 million of capex over the next 12-15 months out of operating cash flow, and management has stated it will not dilute shareholders to fund the expansion.
  • As of the August 2026 interview, the company has already met its 25,000-30,000 oz FY2026 guidance and expects to land at the upper end; the last 12 months produced ~28,000 oz on ~$115 million of revenue with ~$67 million of adjusted EBITDA, and the most recent quarter delivered ~$20 million of adjusted EBITDA at ~$1,600/oz cash costs.
  • The Buck Reef project sits on a 1.5 million ounce resource at ~2.5 g/t, and the April 2025 PEA showed 3,000 t/d, an 18-year mine life and ~$1,200/oz AISC; recovery rates have moved from the mid-70s into the low-to-mid 80s, with a target of high-80s to low-90s.
  • TRX Gold is mobilising four-to-five drill rigs on nine high-grade targets (Stanford Bridge and Anfield highlighted as the source of the best drill-hole results to date) and is in discussions with the Tanzanian government on a national framework agreement.

Stephen Mullowney's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest argues TRX Gold is at an inflection point, with a credible plan to lift production from ~30,000 oz/year today to a target of 80,000-100,000 oz/year via a fourth self-funded plant expansion due online in the next 12-18 months.
  • On the gold market, the guest is constructive, citing persistent government deficits, ongoing central-bank buying as part of de-dollarisation, unresolved geopolitical risk, and sticky inflation as structural supports for higher gold prices.
  • The guest frames the expansion as de-risked because TRX has executed three prior plant expansions, has already ordered the SAG and ball mills, and has tailings-facility contractors on site, with recovery rates improving from the mid-70s toward the high-80s to low-90s.
  • The guest declines to call the stock cheap or expensive and instead focuses on growing EBITDA, NAV and resources, while pledging not to dilute shareholders to fund the ~$50 million of capex over the next 12-15 months.
  • The guest flags two near-term milestones for investors: ramped-up drill results from nine exploration targets (including Stanford Bridge and Anfield) in the final fiscal quarter of 2026, and possible progress on a Tanzanian government framework agreement.