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Gold & Silver Just Added $2 Billion to This Project | Aya Gold - Bourmadine PEA

The Deep Dive Sep 17, 2026 13:36

Summary

Aya's updated Boumadine PEA doubles the after-tax NPV to US$3.5 billion, but higher gold and silver price assumptions do most of the lifting.

AISC (all-in sustaining cost — what it really costs to produce an ounce) rose 27% to $1,300 as grades fell and strip ratios worsened.

Roughly four of every five tonnes in the mine plan remain inferred; PEAs allow that, but a prefeasibility study cannot, so conversion risk stays.

Aya is starting construction in Q4 2026, more than a year before the feasibility study normally used to justify that decision.

Aya trades near 1.1 times NPV, above developer peers like AbraSilver and Vizsla, and its Zagounder mine means Boumadine is not free.

Key points on Aya Gold & Silver

  • The host reports the revised Boumadine PEA, published the week before the September 17, 2026 as-of date, more than doubles after-tax NPV to $3.5 billion USD from $1.5 billion, but most of the extra $2 billion comes from higher price assumptions of $3,500 gold and $50 silver versus $2,800 and $30 previously; at near-constant prices he pegs the real improvement closer to 23%.
  • Aya has already made the investment decision to build Boumadine before the feasibility study is done: CEO Benoit LaSalle says construction starts in Q4 2026, and the company is pushing for first production around mid-2029, ahead of the PEA's own Q4 2030 timeline.
  • Where the study clearly improved is on payables, which rise from 73% to 83% of metal shipped on average (gold from 69% to 82%), and on near-flat initial capital of $463 million, up 4% including $99 million of contingency, which the host says Aya plans to fund from cash flow, external debt and $183 million in cash, with the EBRD considering a $200 million loan.
  • On the rock the host argues the project got worse: indicated tons rose 66% at a 19% lower grade, inferred ounces rose just 1% on a 35% grade cut, the strip ratio worsened from 20.9 to 22.6, all-in sustaining costs rose 27% to $1,300 per ounce, and roughly four of every five tons in the mine plan are inferred material that the feasibility study due in the second half of 2027 cannot rely on.
  • On valuation, Aya closed at about 1.1 times NPV (roughly $3.9 billion USD enterprise value); the host calculates that once the Zagounder mine is credited at the 8-10x EBITDA multiple LaSalle himself uses, investors effectively pay around 0.34-0.53 times for Boumadine, a developer-like price rather than a builder's multiple.

Key points on AbraSilver Resource

  • Named in the host's valuation comparison as a silver developer trading at about 0.55 times NPV, roughly half of Aya's 1.1x multiple.

Key points on Montage Gold

  • Cited in the valuation comparison as trading at about 1.4 times NPV while building its mine, the builder's multiple the host says Aya has not yet reached.

Key points on Vizsla Silver

  • Named in the host's valuation comparison as a developer trading at about 0.72 times NPV, below Aya's roughly 1.1x.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host's bottom line is that none of the study's flaws change the story because Aya has already decided to build Boumadine, and he adds that he likes Morocco as a jurisdiction because things get built.
  • He judges the revised PEA a better study on the money (higher payables, near-flat capital, a third more indicated ounces, a strong margin) but a worse one on the rock (lower grades, a strip ratio gone from bad to worse, higher per-ounce costs), calling it a strong business case with a thinner cushion.
  • He warns that a rebuilt resource model can move the wrong way and that the plan leans on inferred tons that still have to convert, saying he will keep watching the rollout ahead of the feasibility study due in the second half of 2027.