Gold Should Be $9,000 Right Now | David Garofalo

The Deep Dive Aug 27, 2026

Summary

Gold Royalty CEO David Garofalo argues currency debasement will double gold within a year, citing M2 money supply correlation near $9,000 fair value.

Mining reserves have fallen roughly 40% from the 2012 peak despite record prices, as junior underfunding starved the industry of new ounces.

Royalty models capture gold price leverage at the top line, dodging the cost inflation and labor settlements squeezing producing miners.

Tether has accumulated a passive 14% stake in GROY through public market buys, joining Versamet, Metalla, and Elemental among royalty peers.

Garofalo says AI data mining of historic technical reports is the most promising near term efficiency gain in generative exploration.

Garofalo cites Agnico Eagle as a producer sitting on so much cash — per a recent Deep Dive video — that the company does not know what to do with it, with investors pushing for more dividends.

Garofalo describes Elemental Royalty as one of the royalty peers in which Tether has invested, noting Tether controls Elemental and runs it day to day.

Garofalo labels Franco-Nevada as one of the royalty sector's 'category killers' whose size leaves little prospect for further growth.

Garofalo says Gold Royalty's existing portfolio will deliver over 60% growth in gold equivalent ounces this year and over 500% growth over the next five years, with 14 of 250+ royalties currently producing and another 7-8 set to come online within five years.
He highlights royalties on three of the five biggest producing gold mines in North America — the Odyssey underground at Canadian Malartic, Cote, and the underground extension of Gold Strike — calling Gold Strike a high-grade underground start-up he expects to come into production at the end of this year.
He reports record revenues, profits and free cash flow this year, no debt on the balance sheet, $50M in cash and $150M of undrawn credit lines, and projects this year's $30-40M of free cash flow to grow 3-4x over the next several years at current gold prices.
He describes the royalty-generator model of staking claims in Nevada, Quebec and Ontario, farming out properties and taking royalties back, saying about a third of Gold Royalty's ~250 royalties were generated for free — providing infinite-return optionality with zero entry cost.
He discusses a partnership with Prospector Royalty Corp, which uses AI to mine technical reports for fragmented royalty interests, citing the recent acquisition for a couple of million dollars of a royalty on Stiller Gold's Garrison project in Northern Ontario after identifying 10 family-member holders, several of whom were unaware they held the royalty.

Garofalo lists Metalla Royalty among the royalty peer companies in which Tether has accumulated open-market positions.

Garofalo names Triple Flag alongside Gold Royalty as one of the last remaining mid-tier royalty companies, arguing that with Elliott holding ownership in both, the mid-tier will eventually be consolidated by the seniors and the zone will be abandoned again.

Garofalo lists Versamet Royalties among the royalty peer companies in which Tether has accumulated open-market positions.

Garofalo points to Wheaton Precious Metals' recent ~$4 billion Antamina streaming deal — the largest by an order of magnitude yet under 5% of Wheaton's market cap — as evidence that senior streamers are too large for new deals to move the needle.

Top takeaway Garofalo argues gold should be around $9,000 an ounce today based on the historical R-square correlation of roughly 0.98 against M2 money supply, calling the recent pullback a divergence from monetary fundamentals rather than a reversal of the thesis.
He expects gold to roughly double within about a year because fiat debasement, the $40T-plus U.S. debt load, and rising bond term premia are all intact and increasingly hitting headlines.
He frames the macro set-up as fiat currencies being effectively infinite while hard assets are finite, so he expects all hard-asset prices to continue marching up against weakening currencies.
He warns that gold producers face two cost pressures that will keep pace with the gold price — fuel and energy feeding the supply chain, and a second leg of union-driven labor inflation — so producer operating leverage is weaker than the headlines suggest.
He argues the gold sector is structurally short ounces: global reserves are down 40% from the 2012 peak because juniors lost capital access for years and the lead time from discovery to first production is about 20 years, which is the structural reason he favors royalty exposure and frames Gold Royalty as the mid-tier 'Goldilocks' vehicle to play it.

Top takeaway Host Hyland frames the interview around Garofalo's earlier $10,000 gold call, opening by telling viewers they will get into the debasement trade thesis and describing Gold Royalty's portfolio of royalties on some of the biggest names in North America as, in his opinion, looking pretty good over the next five years.