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Gold Is Still Going to $30,000 | Simon Marcotte

The Deep Dive Aug 17, 2026

Summary

Guest Simon Marcotte argues his $30,000 gold thesis remains intact, with 2027 as the critical turning point for the next leg higher.

He frames the path higher as contingent on the Fed turning dovish once the 2026 U.S. refinancing wall clears and deficits stay elevated.

Chinese retail buyers — shut out of crypto — have driven the gold rally; China's money-supply restart suggests the H1 2026 pullback has bottomed.

Macro backdrop: U.S. deficit spending has replaced QE as the economy's primary support since 2008, with the debt ceiling heading toward $41 trillion.

Simon argues AI is bullish for hard assets, not bearish — it crowds professional services out of the CPI basket, freeing room for gold prices to rise.

Key points on IAMGOLD

  • The host cites IAMGOLD's $375 million December acquisition of Northern Superior as the latest in Simon Marcotte's track record of successful takeouts, alongside Lithium X (2017) and Arena Minerals (2023).
  • IAMGOLD is otherwise not discussed; the segment focuses on Marcotte's macro gold thesis, not IAMGOLD's operations or strategy.

Simon Marcotte's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Marcotte maintains his $30,000 gold thesis, comparing the timeframe to oil's roughly $12-to-$140-a-barrel move and implying several more years remain for the trade.
  • He argues the Fed will likely need to 'turn on a dime' from hawkish to very dovish in 2027, which he sees as the trigger for gold's next leg higher.
  • He attributes the H1 2026 gold pullback to a hawkish Fed encouraging foreign holders to roll over Treasuries, plus Chinese investors stepping back after China paused money-supply growth in Q1 2026.
  • He believes gold has bottomed; gold priced in Chinese currency held its upward channel, with the next support near the equivalent of $3,600 USD.
  • He argues the war in Iran signals the 'beginning of the end' of the petrodollar as Saudi Arabia aligns with Pakistan and Turkey, which he views as bullish for gold long-term.

Michael Howell's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Marcotte cites Howell's research establishing a roughly three-month lag between Chinese money-supply increases and gold price moves, using it to argue the H1 2026 pullback was driven by China pausing money-supply growth.
  • Marcotte also references a Howell chart on gold priced in Chinese currency as evidence the uptrend channel remains intact.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Marcotte notes precious metals sold off when Warsh was announced as the incoming Fed chair, on hawkish expectations.
  • Marcotte pushes back on the hawkish framing, noting that Warsh did not vote for a rate hike and was not part of the dissents, suggesting Warsh could provide political cover for a quick dovish pivot.

Steve Hyland's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Hyland frames the discussion as an update on Marcotte's $30,000 gold thesis, asking specifically about the H1 2026 pullback and where the thesis stands as of the August 2026 as-of date.
  • Hyland closes by asking Marcotte about AI's potential impact on precious metals, prompting Marcotte's argument that AI removes services from the CPI basket and lets hard-asset prices rise further.