Fenix Resources: A$96m Operating Cash Flow and a Path to 10Mtpa | John Welborn
Mining Network Sep 20, 2026 11:50
Summary
Fenix delivered FY26 sales of 4.4Mt (million tonnes), up 83%, with FY27 guidance of 4.7–5.3Mt at A$70–80/t C1 (cash production cost).
Targeting about A$100m EBITDA (operating profit before interest, tax and depreciation) this year, with a December 2025 scoping study mapping a path to 10Mtpa.
The 30-year Weld Range license — a 300Mt direct-shipping ore project — anchors Fenix's path to 10Mtpa on a 27Mt at 60% Fe reserve.
A private haul road plus a shipping JV with Mirabok will vertically integrate Fenix from pit to port — the "one Fenix" model.
Fenix has not raised equity since 2020; original shareholders have already received 14.5c per share in fully franked dividends.
John Welborn's takeaways
- Top takeaway Welborn is bullish on iron ore as a proxy for global growth, arguing that investors bullish on copper, uranium, energy-transition or rearmament cannot logically be bearish on the steelmaking raw material.
- He frames near-zero investor appetite for small-cap iron ore as an opportunity, urging investors to 'be brave where people are nervous' and pointing to Fenix's sound management and execution record.
- He pitches Fenix as a yield-and-growth story: a project life of at least 15 years, 'hundreds of millions' of EBITDA at conservative iron ore prices, and bigger dividends to follow.
- His regional thesis is that the Midwest is being overlooked: Fenix sits on 300Mt of DSO with 5Bt of magnetite nearby under BOW Steel, and Fenix already controls haulage and port infrastructure to unlock the area.