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Farming, Not Forecasting: Malcolm Shaw on Investing in Juniors without Predicting Commodity Prices

MiningStockEducation.com Sep 21, 2026 42:01

Summary

Malcolm Shaw's 'farming, not forecasting' approach focuses on junior companies that perform regardless of commodity prices, supported by a 300-name watchlist.

He holds 50-60 positions but concentrates 90% of capital in his top 15, easing into and out of positions to avoid single-point timing risk.

Tenaz Energy (formerly Altura Energy) is his biggest winner, scaling from a low-dollar basis on management-led deal-making; Alpha Minerals was a mining standout.

Tag Oil in Egypt, where costs spiraled and results fell short, is his current loser; the lesson is that management pedigree alone never guarantees outcomes.

Shaw stays inside his circle of competence, avoiding niche metals he cannot fully evaluate, while leaning on sell-side, buy-side, and peer networks for due diligence.

Bill Powers's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host frames the guest's 'we don't predict, we position' tagline and contrasts it with bigger newsletter outfits that sell certainty about the future.
  • He discloses that the interview wasn't sponsored and that he personally invited Malcolm on, and notes he started in 2015 with SilverStocks.

Malcolm Shaw's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The guest preaches a 'farmers, not forecasters' philosophy — picking companies that can win regardless of commodity price moves rather than timing markets.
  • He runs a roughly 50–60-name portfolio where the top 15 names hold about 90% of capital, with position sizes tapering down to half-percent farm-team holdings, and he eases out of large positions slowly to avoid moving the price.
  • He frames good management with long-term alignment — ideally a team that has commercialized assets before — as the essential setup for a big bet, citing the Lundins as the gold standard.
  • He stays within a 'circle of competence' on niche metals like tin and rare earths and follows a structured process of mining a ~300-name watchlist and calling trusted contacts before sizing up new ideas.
  • He openly shares both his wins (Tenaz, Alpha Minerals) and his losers (Tag Oil), framing large losses as part of the long-hold discipline he advocates.