Erik Wetterling – Record High Gold & Silver Prices Make Junior Producers & Advanced Developers Shine

The KE Report Jan 14, 2026

Summary

At current gold prices, a 15,000-ounce junior producer earns the cash a 150,000-ounce mid-tier did in 2018 — so tier-3 assets now self-fund.

Junior developers can use bulk samples, trial mining, or toll-mining to generate non-dilutive capital and self-fund a larger mine build.

A developer's NPV at spot prices can dwarf its market cap — the trade then needs execution, not exploration success.

The second leg of the Lassonde Curve (the pre-production 'golden runway') is where developers transition to producers and often get rewarded.

Erik Wetterling sees capital rotating from seniors into precious-metals juniors that are generating revenue at record margins.

Shad flags that Discovery Silver bought a larger complex with Porcupine, distinguishing it from the other fast-track-into-production juniors discussed.

Heliostar's two Mexican mines, La Colorado and San Agustin, are cited as small-scale production assets that the market rewarded multiple-fold once investors recognized less dilution risk.

Florida Canyon is cited as Integra's small production asset whose fast-track-into-production story was rewarded multiple-fold by the market.

Kuya Silver is grouped with Blue Lagoon as a silver-space junior with limited resources and systems that are not well explored, placing it outside tier-one or tier-two territory.
Erik suggests Kuya could still be worth watching at current metals prices if it executes on its plan.

Talisker is mentioned as ramping up production and wanting a lot of resources.
Shad lists Talisker among juniors that fast-tracked toward a bulk sample to bring forward cash flow against their development projects.

Shad notes West Red Lake Gold started with a bulk sample and has now declared commercial production, though he flags this is a mine restart rather than a greenfield ramp.

Erik highlights Amex as set to do a bulk sample and exploring a total-mill scenario, with the asset's high grade making its margin profile look very strong at 2026-01-14 gold prices.
Shad describes Amex as having transformed from a pure drill play into a company fast-tracking toward a bulk sample to capture near-term cash flow.

Erik describes Blue Lagoon as a small, one-flagship-asset junior that has been moving toward production for some time and is looking to ramp up.
He notes Blue Lagoon lacks large resources and well-explored systems, so it is not a tier-one or tier-two asset, but argues even small output could be meaningful at current gold prices if execution holds.

Erik frames Scottie's direct-ship ore / bulk-sample pivot as a 'make lemonade' move after the market stopped rewarding its drilling at the Scottie Goldmine project, with third-party validation from smart money and a Franco-Nevada involvement.
He estimates a current market cap around CAD 120 million versus an NPV he puts at roughly $700 million-plus at 2026-01-14 gold prices, with a near-surface, low-capex operation.
Erik argues investors do not have to bet on a drill bit because they can underwrite the known quantities of gold at current prices and discount for the time to first pour.
He sees the gap between current market cap and his NPV estimate as offering meaningful upside over roughly a two-year execution window even without exploration success.

Top takeaway Erik argues current gold mining margins are the highest in roughly 40 years, with the average gold mine making more than 10 times the ASIC margin it did in 2018, so a 15,000-ounce producer at 2026-01-14 prices is economically equivalent to a 150,000-ounce producer back then.
His central thesis is that the second leg of the Lassonde curve is the most attractive area of the market right now, because developers and small up-and-coming producers look very cheap relative to current gold prices even after a hypothetical 10% metals correction.
He argues juniors should fast-track small-scale production now to self-fund development, on the view that 'the gold price forgives a lot of mistakes' and the gap between current market caps and spot-price NPVs gives investors a target without needing to bet on a drill bit.
Erik flags that the market has not digested how quickly metals have moved up versus PEA base cases (typically $1,800-$2,000 gold), and that he personally feels 'paranoid' about how well metals are doing and how high the implied NPVs are.
He discloses he owns shares in every company he mentions and that some may be banner sponsors, calling himself 'twice biased.'

Top takeaway Shad sets up the discussion by grouping Integra, Heliostar, Magna Mining and Discovery Silver as juniors that previously fast-tracked into production and saw multiple-fold upside as investors re-rated away from dilution risk.
He notes he and Erik both own shares in Scottie Resources and have followed the management team, framing Scottie's bulk-sample pivot as a way to get paid on the front end to help fund its development project.