Skip to main content

Dave Erfle – Technical Outlook On PMs, 3 New Gold Stocks In Retirement Acct, 3 JMJ Portfolio Winners

The KE Report Aug 5, 2026

Summary

Precious metals look to be basing after a normal correction: gold held $4,000 and GDX/GDXJ held weekly support, suggesting the secular bull remains intact.

Rising rates historically coincide with gold rallies — the '70s and 2022 onward both saw gold climb while the Fed hiked, countering rate-hike fears.

Clearing 90 on GDX and 120 on GDXJ (the gold miner ETFs) would give the all-clear; sentiment and open interest already sit at bear-market lows.

Erfle rotated oil profits into Alamos Gold, Perpetua Resources, and New Pacific Metals, buying quality during drawdowns and diversifying across jurisdictions.

His top JMJ winners — Montage Gold, AbraSilver, and GoGold — show why management quality, tight share structures, and jurisdiction diversification drive junior returns.

Key points on Alamos Gold

  • Dave Erfle says he bought Alamos Gold in his retirement account with oil profits, calling the Young-Davidson mine disruption temporary and the drawdown a chance to buy a good company on bad news.
  • He frames the stock as a lower-risk mid-tier producer offering a strong entry after the sell-off, a name he missed during the first run-up.
  • Host Shad Markwitz calls Alamos the king of the mid-tier, arguing the Young-Davidson disruption at an otherwise solid operator amounts to a clearance-sale entry.

Key points on Pan American Silver

  • Erfle cites Pan American Silver as one of two majors that performed on-site due diligence on New Pacific Metals' Bolivia projects and chose to invest, which he treats as strong validation.

Key points on Gogold Resources

  • Erfle says GoGold finally received the Los Ricos South permit in Mexico, news that drew little attention during the sector's consolidation and that he sees as a good entry point.
  • He notes the company is fully funded to build Los Ricos with no debt after raising the money before the permit, while cash flow from its Peral tailings project continued throughout.
  • He says the stock has long lagged the sector because of Mexico's permitting overhang and expects it to move much higher once the next sector up leg gets going.

Key points on Silvercorp Metals Inc

  • Erfle names Silvercorp, alongside Pan American Silver, as the major backer of New Pacific Metals whose vetting and investment validate the Bolivia projects.

Key points on AbraSilver Resource

  • Erfle calls AbraSilver the strongest takeover target in his top 10, arguing it has neither mine builders nor a project finance package in place even as a construction decision nears.
  • He says the company just released a definitive feasibility study, is raising $50 million rather than assembling a full finance package, and expects a finance package toward the end of the year.
  • He describes it as arguably the best primary silver project owned by a junior, with a tight share structure, a growing resource and ongoing discovery potential from continued drilling.

Key points on Montage Gold

  • Erfle says Montage is the biggest gainer in his top 10, up about 25 times from his entry below 50 cents, and he still holds half the position after several trims.
  • He highlights the large Kone Gold Project in Cote d'Ivoire and says Montage keeps adding ounces at and around Kone by taking over other companies while building the mine.
  • He notes the stock consolidated for about six months yet bifurcated higher versus the sector, and as of the early-August 2026 interview is breaking out above C$17, which had been strong weekly resistance.

Key points on New Pacific Metals

  • Erfle says he made New Pacific his third retirement-account purchase with oil profits because Bolivian geopolitics have improved and the long-ignored stock is now outperforming the sector.
  • He points to its two early-stage Bolivia projects backed by Silvercorp and Pan American Silver, whose due diligence and investment he views as major validation.
  • He says he is up 37% since re-entering near his prior sale price but still sees the stock as cheap relative to peers on project value.

Key points on Perpetua Resources

  • Erfle says he bought Perpetua around $20, down from about $37-38, viewing the sell-off as a second chance at a name he sold for tax losses years ago and missed on the way up.
  • He notes the Stibnite gold project in Idaho is fully funded and backed by the US government thanks to its antimony credit.
  • Host Shad Markwitz adds that US government support helped secure the final permit and raises the odds the project becomes a mine, though execution risk remains.

Kevin Warsh's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Host Shad Markwitz says the Kevin Warsh cycle, together with war-cycle worries, pressured interest rates and the US dollar and deepened the sector's correction beyond what many expected.

David Erfle's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Erfle argues the gold stocks have made at least an intermediate-term bottom, possibly a sustainable long-term one, after roughly 30% and 55% corrections in gold and silver, and sees the bigger risk to the upside.
  • He says the Fed is trapped and a feared September rate hike is largely priced in, likely acting as a contrarian bottom trigger as in 2016, noting gold rose during past hiking cycles in the 1970s and from 2022.
  • He rotated his remaining oil profits in his retirement account into Alamos Gold, Perpetua Resources and New Pacific Metals, buying quality names he missed on the way up during the drawdown.
  • He uses his newsletter's subscriber flows as a contrarian indicator, citing record sign-ups at the January peak and dried-up subscriptions at the recent bottom, a 265% return for followers from late 2024 into 2025, and his account still up 10% on the year.
  • He argues for diversifying across jurisdictions because the best deals often appear in sketchier ones close to turning, citing his own positions in Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and Cote d'Ivoire.

Shad Markwitz's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Host Shad Markwitz frames the summer doldrums as a base-building phase of washed-out sentiment and volume that could set up a late-summer to early-fall rally in gold, silver and the stocks.
  • He argues contrarian buying into drawdowns is easy to describe but rarely executed, and highlights Erfle's willingness to hold quality projects in overlooked jurisdictions while pricing the risk.