Bullish on the S&P and the U.S. Economy | Brian Belski and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Belski argues the S&P 500 will reach 7300-7500 on an earnings-driven regime, which historically delivers half the returns and more corrections than a momentum-driven one.
Gold at four standard deviations above its long-term average signals a multi-year underperformance window — Belski owns only Agnico Eagle (AEM) as a result.
Belski flags asset-class stress as Ontario Teachers, Blue Owl, KKR, and Blackstone report private credit and private equity write-downs — but not systemic risk yet.
Underweight the Mag7, overweight U.S. financials: Belski favors big diversified banks plus small community lenders with clean balance sheets.
Belski prefers Canadian energy pipelines (Enbridge, TC Energy, Suncor) over U.S. drillers because U.S. producers need higher oil prices to break even.
Key points on Agnico Eagle Mines
- The only gold holding in Belski's portfolios — kept for its dividend even though he has been 'very cautious' on the gold sector, calling it 'the right call' to underweight.
- Held as the sole exception to his broader gold caution; Belski notes gold is 4 standard deviations above its long-term annual average and historically due for two years of underperformance.
Jimmy Connor's takeaways
- Top takeaway As host, Connor frames 2026 as 'one hell of a year' — flags private credit, AI valuations, the software-stock collapse, and the Middle East conflict since February 28 as the dominant themes of the year to date.
- Expresses concern that 'educated' Canadians are leaving the country at scale, pointing to 2025 marking Canada's first population decline since Confederation (down 102,000 people).
Brian Belski's takeaways
- Top takeaway Stands by his S&P 500 year-end target of 7300 to 7500 and frames the current environment as a natural transition from a momentum/multiple-driven market to an earnings-driven one.
- Maintains his 2010 secular-bull-market call with another 8-10 years to run — favors small/mid-cap stocks as his favorite contrarian theme for the next 5-10 years.
- Cautious on private credit but says it is NOT systemic — already sold Blackstone and now sees the big US banks as 'unjustly hurt,' creating a buying opportunity.
- Not worried about the US economy — points to March non-farm payrolls of 178,000 and sub-5% unemployment, and argues stocks lead the economy so you should buy consumer discretionary when recession fear peaks.
- Top stock calls in this conversation: MSFT and ORCL (software), PANW (cybersecurity), PLTR (data/AI), and NFLX and SPOT (streaming/comm services).