Skip to main content

Aya Gold & Silver ($AYA) on Strong Q2 Revenue Growth, 400,000-Tonne Silver Ore Stockpile

Investor TV Aug 25, 2026

Summary

Aya's Zgounder mine is running as a cash machine: Q2 revenue up 151% YoY, operating cash flow up 522%, with payback on $140M capex inside five months.

Boumadiene is targeting 37M ounces of silver a year at an AISC (all-in sustaining cost) under $15, lifting Aya to roughly 43M ounces by mid-2029.

Q3 and Q4 historically deliver about 60% of annual silver production at the Moroccan operations because winter weather slows Q1 and Q2.

A 400,000-ton ore stockpile gives the mill roughly two quarters of feed if mining halts, materially de-risking any short-term pit disruption.

At a roughly $4B market cap, even conservative silver prices imply material upside as Boumadiene approaches commissioning.

Key points on Fresnillo

  • Don Durrett argues that, as of August 2026, Fresnillo is the only major silver producer still ahead of Aya on a gold- or silver-equivalent production basis.

Key points on Aya Gold & Silver

  • Benoit La Salle reports Q2 year-over-year revenue up 151%, net income up 300%, and operating cash flow up 522%, attributing part of the move to the Q2 NASDAQ listing that doubled trading volume and forced out prior OTC short sellers.
  • La Salle describes Zgounder as a de-risked cash machine producing 6 million ounces of silver a year at a Q2 cash cost of $17, with an 11-year mine life and $119 million of operating cash flow in the first half against $140 million of capex (about a 5-month payback).
  • The CEO highlights a 400,000-tonne silver ore stockpile that could keep the plant fed for roughly two quarters if mining stopped, and a positive resource update adding 20 million ounces versus the prior estimate.
  • La Salle outlines Boumazin as roughly six times Zgounder production, targeting 43 million oz/yr (silver equivalent) by mid-2029 with an AISC around $15 and a $450 million capex spread over two years; the project is fully permitted with water, power and land secured.
  • The CEO describes the balance sheet as pristine — 144 million shares outstanding with about 46 million tightly held by board and family offices, $70 million of net debt and $183 million of free cash — and confirms the board plans a structured share buyback once Boumazin financing is finalized.

Don Durrett's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Don Durrett central call is that Aya is materially undervalued: at his assumed $200 silver and ~$50 AISC, 42 million oz/yr at Boumazin implies about $6.3 billion of annual free cashflow, which at a 15x multiple would put Aya near $90 billion versus its ~$4 billion market cap at the time of the interview.
  • He pushes for a structured share buyback tied to a percentage of free cashflow (25–50%) and recommends that mining companies hold 25% of treasury cash in physical silver as a hedge against potential USD devaluation.
  • Don frames silver as heading north of $150 by Boumazin 2029 commissioning (silver hit $121 earlier in 2026) and lists Aya among his top-10 silver names as of August 2026.
  • He identifies the main risk as the time to full re-rating — Boumazin commissioning targeted mid-2029, roughly three years out — but expects meaningful re-rating to begin by end of 2027 as the free-cashflow story becomes visible.

Benoit La Salle's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Benoit La Salle opens with the Q2 catalyst: the NASDAQ listing doubled trading volume, brought in new ETFs and index inclusion, and cleared much of the OTC short interest that had weighed on the stock.
  • He frames Zgounder as a de-risked cash machine — on-time, on-budget construction; a positive resource update adding 20 million ounces; and a 400,000-tonne ore stockpile that provides roughly two quarters of plant feed if mining stops.
  • La Salle outlines Boumazin as the growth engine — fully permitted with water, power and land secured; Q4 2026 infrastructure construction start; $450 million capex over two years; and commissioning targeted for mid-2029.
  • He describes the resource work: 200,000 meters of drilling in both 2026 and 2027 to upgrade Boumazin from inferred to measured and indicated, with a recent off-the-main-zone intercept of 51 meters at 890 g/t silver-equivalent that is not yet in the resource model.
  • La Salle confirms Aya is not for sale, points to energy costs locked in on a 20-year grid (solar) contract and no streamer royalties, and confirms a planned structured buyback program tied to a $200 million EBRD facility once Boumazin financing is finalized.