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#106 Digging for Dollars #34 How IDEX Metals Outbid Majors in Idaho & Rio Tinto’s Move on Mogotes

CEO.CA Jul 17, 2026 36:22

Summary

Rio Tinto's C$21 million investment in Mogotes at a 75-cent premium wiped out the financing overhang that had capped the stock.

Counting warrants and options, Mogotes works out near $250 million fully diluted, against $4.5 billion Filo and NGEx next door.

IDEX's tungsten reassay added 0.11% to 180 metres of 0.6% copper, lifting the interval to 1.87% copper equivalent.

The guest argues tungsten lifts a critical copper project into a polymetallic resource, using conservative prices and a mid-range recovery.

IDEX took 28,000 Idaho acres at a state lease auction after majors arrived unable to bid because they were not properly registered.

Key points on Aris Mining Corp

  • The host names Aris as the newest and best-known asset in Kazakhstan, with a market cap of roughly $200M after drilling a 1,000 m hole at nearly 0.7% copper equivalent.
  • He uses it as the benchmark for judging Mogotes' newly acquired Kazakhstani property, which he says has multiple 1,000 m intercepts above 0.7% copper equivalent, while flagging Kazakhstan as cheap to operate but a questionable jurisdiction.

Key points on Hercules Metals Corp

  • Its 2023 Leviathan porphyry discovery in the new Idaho district is what anchors the area; Clayton calls it exceptional not only for their belt but for mining in the US in general, and IDEX's Breccia target sits just to the north.
  • The host says the discovery set off a large staking rush, with Barksdale blanketing about 100,000 acres of federal claims over roughly a year and a half, which is why IDEX went after the state lease auction instead and wonders whether higher-grade or deeper economics at Hercules matter for payback.

Key points on NGEx Minerals Ltd

  • The host uses NGEx as the other anchor comp in the Vicuna district, valuing it at roughly $4.5B alongside Filo.
  • He says NGEx also holds a 70% interest in 18 million tons of copper and 10 million ounces and puts that stake at about $3B.

Clayton Fisher's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Top point: his argument is that the tungsten result, not the copper, is what re-rates IDEX, calling 180 m at 0.6% copper with 0.11% WO3 a huge hole in a really big new belt, saying he is probably a buyer, and arguing the market has not translated the value built by the work into the share price yet.
  • His stance on disclosure is deliberately conservative: he will not publish a copper equivalent because it is subjective and no metallurgy has been done, uses a mid-range 75% tungsten recovery and a low price assumption rather than the headline number, and says he will switch to publishing once they have the proper data to back it.
  • His exploration plan is two-sided: test the higher-risk porphyry at depth on the North Breccia target while defining the Kismet oxide and breccia zone as a valuation backstop and eventual resource, with the stated aim of getting to a billion-dollar market cap; he says the company is fully funded on just over $7M of cash.
  • On how the position was built, he credits Goldspot and the host for the first exploration program and the original 500 m by 500 m soil anomaly at Kismet, argues juniors with no money should pay for AI geotech maps, imagery and inversions with equity, and says winning the 28,000-acre Idaho state lease auction as the only registered bidder was the move that created the district-scale package north of Hercules.
  • His view on the geology is that this is a polymetallic system, with copper and tungsten in the same breccia, strong moly, untested gold to the north, and a large cohesive geophysical response that he hopes is a porphyry at depth; he also pitched Juggernaut and Corcel as his two digs in the deal segment.