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#100 Digging for Dollars #28 The Game Has Changed Dan Earle and Access to Capital In the Mining Sect

CEO.CA May 14, 2026 42:39

Summary

Access to capital, once a junior miner's edge, is no longer an advantage now that participation in resource equities has broadened.

Cost of capital has collapsed: Lundin Gold financed Frida del Norte near 20%, while juniors now issue bonds below 9%.

Big raises remove junior mining's top risk — getting through the valley of death — which makes dilution a secondary worry.

Dan Earle argues investors anchored to prior cycles misread today's deals; newcomers without fixed priors often perform better.

Three rapid pitches: a Nevada producer with a $750M NAV second asset, a $6M Peru silver explorer, and a fresh copper find.

Key points on Kinross Gold

  • The host says the chairman of the anonymous company he pitches in the deal-pitch segment is someone who founded Kinross, offered as a pedigree detail rather than a mining or financial point.

Key points on Lundin Gold

  • The guest calls Frida del Norte one of the strongest gold assets developed in the last cycle and Lundin Gold one of the best single-asset companies in the sector.
  • He says financing Frida del Norte took a little over a billion dollars, at an all-in cost of capital of around 20 percent including fees.
  • He covered the company as a sell-side analyst at TD Securities, visiting Frida del Norte before it was public and following it through development, and uses that history to frame how much cheaper junior financing has since become.
  • Lundin Gold is his reference point for what used to be possible, contrasted with juniors now reaching the broad market, the bond market and the high-yield market.

Key points on Borealis Mining Company Ltd

  • The host pitches an unnamed Nevada company, named in the segment as Borealis Resources, at roughly $170 million market cap, saying production of 15,000 to 20,000 ounces a year kicks off in about two weeks.
  • He says that production comes from low-grade oxide of 0.2 to 0.3 grams per tonne across a 300,000-ounce resource, with infrastructure and payments already in place and roughly $20 to $40 million a year of earnings expected, plus oxide that has previously produced up to 5 grams per tonne.
  • He cites about 2 million ounces of refractory transitional material below the oxide at just under 2 grams per tonne as evidence the system extends deeper.
  • A second asset two hours north near Reno carries a PEA he puts at $750 million NAV at $4,000 gold, needing only about $60 million of capex for a 12-year mine life and up to 80,000 ounces a year, with oxide that could be trucked to the first site.
  • He says the company holds $30 million in the bank and adds that its chairman is someone who founded Kinross; both other panelists said they would dig into the pitch.

Key points on Amex Exploration

  • The host says Amex is oversubscribed and had just raised at $4.50, announced the same day as this episode, as evidence that demand for good financings is still running ahead of supply.

Key points on Fireweed Metals

  • Fireweed Metals is named, alongside Highlander, Montage and Blue Moon, among the companies that have managed to raise substantial amounts of capital lately.

Key points on Montage Gold

  • Montage is named, alongside Highlander and others, as a junior that raised roughly $100 million, and is described as sitting in the Lundin group overlay.
  • The host says it merged with Bear Creek and that the shares have gone from around $3 at the time of that raise to about $16.

Key points on Skeena Resources

  • The guest cites Skeena's recent bond as the clearest evidence of how cheap junior capital has become, saying it trades between 7 and 7.5 percent, roughly 150 basis points, on a straight bond with no conversion feature.
  • He contrasts that with the roughly 20 percent all-in cost of capital on Lundin Gold's Frida del Norte financing and calls the change a sea change in cost of capital.

Key points on Hercules Metals Corp

  • The host says Chris Paul, whom he describes as being from Hercules, came on the show about six months before this episode and pushed a Chilean asset on him as a deal worth buying.
  • He says Paul was hard to evaluate because of long pitch sessions and a CEO who, in his words, did not really know what he was talking about, but that the location beside a very large, famous Chilean mine made the project compelling.

Key points on Highlander Silver Corp

  • The top point is the host saying his biggest regret of the last two years as a fund manager is not buying Highlander: sitting in his office at a roughly $30 share price he heard about the Lundin zone, about 300,000 ounces at around 20 grams per tonne gold plus silver, with Lundin involved.
  • He says he waited for the financing instead of buying in the market, then passed on it when the deal priced near $3 because the stock had already tripled; he says it is about $9 as of this episode and that he does not own it.
  • The guest says the Lundin family has committed a lead order for the next financing, planned for Q4 after a feasibility study, and credits that support for what Highlander has achieved.
  • Matt Wilson's retail filter is to look for companies raising $50 million or more while still under roughly $500 million market cap, which he treats as probably a good buy.
  • The guest argues access to capital is no longer a strategic advantage for early-stage builders, because sector participation has broadened to the point where any project of merit probably has good access to capital.

Key points on San Lorenzo Gold Corp

  • The episode opens on San Lorenzo, with over 100 metres at 1.33 grams per tonne gold and, in the host's view, a more exciting 3.9 kilometre step-out in the release, which he links to the stock doubling.
  • He describes old data and unflashy geology but a 17 kilometre gold strike, a roughly $550 million market cap, 4 kilometres of gold hits over more than 200 metres and an unreleased porphyry copper intercept over 200 metres, adding that systems of that size do not come around often.
  • He says the fund tried to put in $300,000, got about $130,000 before being cut back, and is still holding because of the possibility of a large-scale system.
  • His core thesis is adjacency, that the best place to find a mine is in the shadow of the headboard of another one, and this asset sits beside a very large, famous Chilean mine.
  • He expects proving out a large-scale system will take a lot more money, and the guest later uses San Lorenzo as the scale comparison for a copper pitch at a similar market cap with fewer holes drilled.

Chris Paul's takeaways

  • Top takeaway He pushed the host on a Chilean asset roughly six months before this episode, insisting it was a deal worth buying despite the host's first impressions.
  • He concedes, through the host's retelling, that the early pitches ran long and that the CEO did not really know what he was talking about.
  • The host credits him with the call that location matters more than polish, that an asset in elephant country beside a very large, famous Chilean mine is worth buying, and the stock later doubled on results.

Eric Sprott's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Eric Sprott is said to have taken 50 million shares in Galantas Gold's December financing of $15 million at 8 cents, backing the company's first Chilean asset.

George Ogilvie's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The host cites him as a recent guest and uses his company's path, raising a lot of money then exiting at about $2.1 billion, as the template for well-funded developers that get acquired.

Matt Wilson's takeaways

  • Top takeaway The top point is that he says capital, not geology, is the biggest risk in the business at $5,000 gold, because most of these projects work if they can be funded.
  • He argues a large raise is a bullish signal rather than only a dilution event, because it funds multiple drills, allows meaningful news flow, stops the stock stagnating, and attracts institutions whose validation acts as a moat.
  • He offers a screen for retail investors: a company raising $50 million or more while its market cap is still under roughly $500 million is probably a good buy.
  • He says the size of the dollar goal makes founder-stock and dilution worries matter less, and that raising big money expedites the valley of death on the Lassonde curve.
  • He notes that many of the explorecos that raised $50 million or more over the past three years were acquired, naming Arizona Sonoran, Filo, Foran, Reunion and Rupert as future mid-tier producers and strategic targets, and attributes those raises to good people and good assets.