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$1 Billion Bet Powering i80 Gold's Next Phase | Ryan Snow - i-80 Gold

The Deep Dive Sep 25, 2026 7:08

Summary

Management treats $4,000 gold as the new floor and calls $6,000 feasible within two years on central bank buying, while modeling nothing above spot.

Granite Creek's first feasibility study adds 556,500 ounces of reserves with planned production of about 75,000 ounces per year.

NPV (net present value — future cash flow in today's dollars) climbs from $118 million at $2,750 gold to $598 million at $4,500 gold.

Step-out drilling under Mineral Point's heap leach pad targets mineralization first hit by Homestake's 1990s condemnation drilling (checking ground before building on it).

The billion-dollar recapitalization funds a $430 million Lone Tree plant refurbishment, targeting commissioning by end-2027, while first-half revenue nearly doubled to $77 million.

Key points on i-80 Gold Corp

  • Snow says the more than $1 billion raised over the past year answers the funding question and will mostly fund the roughly $430 million Lone Tree processing facility, with about 50% of capital committed and commissioning plus first gold pour targeted for end-2027 or early 2028.
  • The just-completed Granite Creek feasibility study, the company's first, puts 556,000 oz of reserves on the books and targets about 75,000 oz/year of steady-state production, with NPV just under $120 million at reserve pricing or roughly $600 million at $4,500 gold (as of September 2026).
  • Step-out holes drilled under the existing heap leach pad at Mineral Point returned broad mineralization, including a 225-meter strike interval at just over 1 g/t gold and about 39 g/t silver, which Snow says could expand the 5.5 Moz gold and 195 Moz silver PEA resource.
  • Snow points to a Cove feasibility study due in Q4 2026, followed by a Mineral Point open-pit pre-feasibility study and an Archimedes Underground feasibility study at Ruby Hills planned for mid-2027.
  • Snow reports six-month 2026 revenue of just under $77 million versus just under $42 million a year earlier, with gross profit near $25 million versus under $4 million, though the company remains loss-making while funding its growth phase.

Ryan Snow's takeaways

  • Top takeaway Snow argues gold has a floor around $4,000-$4,300/oz for the foreseeable future and that $6,000/oz is feasible within two years on central bank buying, though i-80 is not modeling that price (as of September 2026).
  • He says last year's dominant investor question about i-80 — where the money would come from — is now answered, with the over $1 billion raise shifting the focus to executing the Lone Tree hub on schedule.
  • He frames dewatering at Granite Creek as the gating item: two new wells and an expanded water treatment plant are in commissioning and should lower groundwater enough to allow more development toward feasibility-study production rates.
  • He presents the current losses as natural for a growth-phase producer, citing six-month 2026 revenue of just under $77 million (versus under $42 million) and gross profit near $25 million (versus under $4 million) as operating improvement.
  • He tells investors exactly what to watch over the next year: a Cove feasibility study in Q4 2026, Mineral Point open-pit pre-feasibility and Archimedes Underground feasibility studies around mid-2027, and Lone Tree construction updates.