Henrik Zeberg

Henrik Zeberg is the Head Macro Economist at Swissblock and the creator of the Zeberg Macro Navigation Framework™, a cycle-based method for calling turning points in the economy and markets. For resource investors, his value is sequencing: he argues a final speculative blow-off top — a euphoric melt-up in prices just before a sharp reversal — is still ahead for equities, to be followed by a deflationary bust he expects to be worse than 2008, and then a central-bank rescue that sets up the next major advance for gold.

Zeberg formalized his method in the SSRN working paper "The Zeberg Macro Navigation Framework" (2025) and lays out his thesis in "The Monetary House of Cards" (2025). His 2025 TED talk, "Is the AI bubble about to burst?", has drawn roughly half a million views, and he writes a Forbes column. Palisades Gold Radio, The Julia La Roche Show, and WTFinance have all hosted him, and Yahoo Finance cited his recession warning in October 2025. The record has limits worth knowing: his blow-off-top call dates to 2024 and has slipped repeatedly — as of his August 2026 return to Palisades Gold Radio he was still expecting the top "next quarter" — and his 2020 call for gold to revisit $800 never materialized before gold rallied instead.

His framework sorts economic data into leading, coincident, and lagging indicators — yield curves, ISM and PMI surveys (monthly gauges of manufacturing and services activity), and labor data — to locate the economy in real time on the business cycle. The sequence he trades around: a liquidity-driven blow-off top; then a short deflationary bust, roughly six to nine months, in which the US dollar rallies and cash and bonds are the safe places to sit; then a large fiscal and monetary response that produces stagflation — stagnant growth with rising inflation — and, in his view, a dramatic advance for gold from whatever drawdown precedes it.

Zeberg is not a stock picker, and mining investors should treat him as a timing overlay rather than a source of picks: the practical question his work answers is when to hold cash and when to redeploy into gold and commodities. He publishes continuously on his Substack, in The Zeberg Letter for professional investors, and through Swissblock Economy & Markets, a weekly research service spanning equities, commodities, and digital assets.